NRL Round 20 Predictions: Data Scientists’ Predictive Model

Posted: July 19, 2016

Utilising a vast array of variables and proven statistical methods, the NRL Prediction Model takes a purely statistical approach to predicting NRL outcomes.

Predicted NRL probabilities can be used to identify value Back & Lay bets. Factors such as injuries and weather aren’t considered in the assessments but can be manually considered in your wagering to give you an added edge.

Data Scientists Comments

We rate the Cowboys a 71% chance ($1.40) Thursday night as they start their post-Origin charge towards back-to-back titles. The early Betfair market not providing any value for an investment.

The Betfair market is undervaluing the Eels considerably – 37% probability ($2.70) early on. We have Parramatta as a stronger chance at 42% ($2.33) – important to note key outs for the Eels. Despite this, Eels should still be considered at the Line or Match Odds.

South Sydney may have dropped their last six games but we’re predicting the bunnies to have a slight winning advantage against Manly – value in match odds.

All times below are EST.

North Queensland v Bulldogs

Thursday July 21, 7:50pm – 1300Smiles Stadium
Predicted Margin: Cowboys by 9 points

Canberra v NZ Warriors

Saturday July 23, 3:00pm – GIO Stadium
Predicted Margin: Raiders by 8

Melbourne v Sydney

Saturday July 23, 7:30pm – AAMI Park
Predicted Margin: Storm by 12

St George Illawarra v West Tigers

Sunday July 24, 4:00pm – ANZ Stadium
Predicted Margin: Tigers by 4

Brisbane v Penrith

Friday July 22, 7:50pm – Suncorp Stadium
Predicted Margin: Broncos by 12

Gold Coast v Parramatta

Saturday July 23, 5:30pm – CBUS Super Stadium
Predicted Margin: Titans by 3

Cronulla v Newcastle

Sunday July 24, 2:00pm – Shark Park
Predicted Margin: Sharks by 25

South Sydney v Manly

Monday July 25, 7:00pm – Allianz Stadium
Predicted Margin: Rabbitohs by 1

Related Articles