NRL Finals Week 2 Predictions: Data Scientists’ Predictive Model

Posted: September 14, 2016
Betfair Data Scientists

Utilising a vast array of variables and proven statistical methods, the NRL Prediction Model takes a purely statistical approach to predicting NRL outcomes.

Predicted NRL probabilities can be used to identify value Back & Lay bets. Factors such as injuries and weather aren’t considered in the assessments but can be manually considered in your wagering to give you an added edge.

Data Scientists Comments

Last year’s Grand Final rematch kicks off the weekend with the Queensland Derby between North Queensland and Brisbane. The model is predicting a 10-point win to the Cowboys. The reigning Premiers offer some value on the exchange at $1.48 (68%) compared to their rated price of $1.37 (73%).

Their winning streak came to an end last weekend but the model is predicting Canberra to bounce back against Penrith on Saturday. The model has the Raiders at $1.63 (61%) while they are currently available on the exchange at $1.90 (53%). The big watch is on star duo Josh Hodgson and Blake Austin to take their place in the team, both are currently in doubt with injury so betting late could be the key to predicting the right outcome for this clash.

All times below are EST.

North Queensland v Brisbane

Friday September 16, 7:55pm – 1300Smiles Stadium
Predicted Margin: Cowboys by 10 points

Canberra v Penrith

Saturday September 17, 7:45pm – GIO Stadium
Predicted Margin: Raiders by 6

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