NRL Finals Week 1 Predictions: Data Scientists’ Predictive Model

Utilising a vast array of variables and proven statistical methods, the NRL Prediction Model takes a purely statistical approach to predicting NRL outcomes.

Predicted NRL probabilities can be used to identify value Back & Lay bets. Factors such as injuries and weather aren’t considered in the assessments but can be manually considered in your wagering to give you an added edge.

Data Scientists Comments


Home Ground Advantage looks invaluable in the opening round of the NRL Finals with the model siding with the hosts in every game. The big shock comes in the Raiders-Sharks game with the model giving Cronulla just a 15% ($6.80) chance of progressing straight to the Preliminary Final. The market is rates Cronulla a 42% ($2.36) chance of winning in the nation’s capital. A bet on the minus would be great value.


The other value option lies with Melbourne Storm when they host the reigning champions North Queensland. The Storm are a 54% ($1.84) chance of victory according to the early market, whilst the model has rated them a 66% ($1.52) chance.

All times below are EST.

Brisbane v Gold Coast

Friday September 9, 7:55pm – Suncorp Stadium
Predicted Margin: Broncos by 16 points

Melbourne v North Queensland 

Saturday September 10, 7:55pm – AAMI Park
Predicted Margin: Storm by 6

Canberra v Cronulla

Saturday September 10, 5:35pm – GIO Stadium
Predicted Margin: Raiders by 16

Penrith v Canterbury

Sunday September 11, 4:10pm – Allianz Stadium
Predicted Margin: Panthers by 4

Related Articles