NFL Week 9: Thursday Night Football – Cleveland @ Baltimore

Posted: November 11, 2016



Cleveland 43.5 @ Baltimore -10.5

Thursday November 11, 12:25pm AEDT 



Cleveland was beaten pretty soundly at home by Dallas last week 35-10. Dallas scored touchdowns on five of their first six drives of the game (excluding a kneel-down at the end of the half). Cleveland was out rushed by Dallas 168 yards to 45 yards, 4.0ypr to 3.5ypr, out passed 9.1yps to 5.7yps and sacked four times in the game. Overall, Cleveland was out gained 6.0yppl to 5.0yppl but Dallas ran the ball 29 more times and Dallas controlled the clock by almost 20 more minutes.

In an ugly game Baltimore jumped out to a 21-0 lead and held on to defeat Pittsburgh 21-14, with neither team rushing the ball well. Baltimore out gained Pittsburgh throwing the ball 6.6yps to 5.1yps but Baltimore had a 95 yard touchdown pass that was a short pass that turned into a long run. Without that pass Baltimore averaged just 3.9yps and the touchdown was the only offensive touchdown Baltimore scored in the game. Overall, both teams averaged 4.3yppl. Baltimore ran the ball 11 more times while Pittsburgh threw the ball 13 more times. Baltimore held Pittsburgh to just two first downs until the Steelers first scoring drive half way through the fourth quarter.

Cleveland averages 4.8ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.0yps against 6.4yps and 5.6yppl against 5.6yppl. They allow 4.6ypr against 4.4ypr, 7.8yps against 6.7yps and 6.3yppl against 5.7yppl.

Baltimore averages 3.5ypr against 4.2ypr, 5.5yps against 6.8yps and 4.8yppl against 5.8yppl. They allow 3.4ypr against 4.5ypr, 5.9yps against 6.4yps and 5.0yppl against 5.7yppl.

For Cleveland, they will be without CB Jamar Taylor but otherwise they are relatively healthy. For Baltimore, they will be without LG Marshal Yanda, LB Elvis Dumervil, LB Kamalei Correa, CB Shareece Wright.

This game qualifies in two strong under situations, which are 146-70-3 and 287-199-2. The second under situation if the total is higher than 45 points. Baltimore qualifies in two different situations that play against large favorites who are average teams on the year. Those situations are 183-90-6 and 284-173-9. Cleveland is coming off two straight home losses but that actually qualifies them in a good situation, which is 169-111-7. My numbers favour Baltimore by only six points and project about 44 points. 

Baltimore hasn’t won in this series by more than 10 points in the last 10 games and not since 2011 have they won in this series by more than 10 points. In addition, Baltimore hasn’t defeated a team by more than 10 points in their last 25 games, going back to the playoffs against Pittsburgh in January of 2015 (2014 season). The challenge here for Cleveland will be they’ve allowed at least 25 points in every game this year, including allowing at least 30 points in six of their last seven games. The fewest points they have allowed this year is 25 points, which came to these Ravens back in week two. Baltimore also happens to be, by far, the worst offense they have faced this year. The Ravens haven’t scored more than 27 points this year. Baltimore has allowed more than 16 points at home just once this year, which was to Oakland. Ravens are 2-10-1 ats in their last 13 divisional home games as favorites of six or more points. The Browns have lost by 25 and 20 points to the Cowboys and Patriots respectively, but those two teams are the two best teams in the league currently. In games where Cody Kessler has started and finished, and not against the two best teams in the league, Cleveland has lost by 6, 11 and 2 points so they can compete against the more average teams in the league. Combine that with Baltimore not blowing anyone out and some good situations in Cleveland’s favor. Cleveland has a chance to compete in this game. Despite the good situations on the under I’m a little afraid of the total because of Cleveland’s weak defense.



Baltimore 24 Cleveland 20



YPR = Yards Per Rush

YPS = Yards Per Pass

YPPL = Yards Per Play

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