NFL Week 9: Sunday Night Football – Denver @ Oakland

Posted: November 7, 2016 at 10:31 am

Champion_Bets

 

Denver 43.5 @ Oakland -1.5

Monday November 7, 12:30am AEDT 

Moneyline

 

Denver were able to hold off San Diego by returning two interceptions for a touchdown and one to the ten-yard line, also resulting in a touchdown, to win 27-19 lat week. The Broncos were out rushed in the game 123-57 yards and 4.7ypr to 2.3ypr, but out passed San Diego 6.8yps to 4.8yps, including sacking Philip Rivers four times and intercepting him three. Overall, because of their strong pass defence, they out gained the Chargers 5.1yppl to 4.8yppl despite the Chargers throwing the ball 12 more times.

The Raiders needed OT to win 30-24 at Tampa Bay last week despite out gaining Tampa Bay 626 yards to 270 yards and 7.4yppl to 4.4yppl. They out passed the Buccaneers 8.2yps to 4.9yps and 5.3ypr to 3.8ypr. The Raiders controlled the clock by about 15 minutes and overcame 23 penalties for a whopping 200 yards, which kept the game close despite their huge advantage in yards.

Denver averages 3.9ypr against teams allowing 4.1ypr, 6.1yps against 6.7yps and overall 5.2yppl against teams allowing just 5.7yppl. On defence, they are allowing 4.3ypr against 4.1ypr, 4.7yps against 6.6yps and 4.5yppl against 5.6yppl.

Oakland averages 4.8ypr against teams allowing 4.1ypr, throws for 6.9yps against teams allowing 6.5yps and 6.1yypl against teams allowing 5.6yppl. On defence, they allow 4.8ypr against 4.1ypr, 7.6yps against 6.6yps and 6.5yppl against teams averaging 5.6yppl.

CB Aqib Talib won’t play this week for Denver and Oakland will be without DT Stacy McGee.

Denver qualifies in a very strong negative situation which plays against road teams who have very favourable spread records. That situation is 116-50-6 and plays against the Broncos here if they are favoured, or an underdog of one or less. My numbers favour Denver by .5 point before accounting for the situation and project about 41 points.

The Raiders haven’t been favoured at home much over the last few years and are 0-4 against the spread the last four times they have been favoured, which spans the last two plus seasons. Going back further they are now just 7-23-1 against the spread the last 30 times they have been favoured at home, which goes back over 11 seasons to 2005.

Oakland continues to defeat the below .500 teams and lose to the winning teams, going 6-0 against .500 or below teams. Meanwhile, they are 0-2 straight up against winning teams, with both of those games at home. Denver isn’t much better, with just one win against a better than .500 team, with their 27-9 victory over Houston. For as good as the Broncos defence is, they’ve allowed 19 or more points against the five best offenses they’ve faced this year. Oakland’s defence needs to improve but if they can match what the other offenses have done this year, and get to 20-23 points in this game, that could be enough against an anaemic Denver offense on the road. Oakland has allowed 31 or more points three times this year but those contests all came against great offenses (NO, SD & ATL). Against the three worst offenses they’ve faced this year, Oakland has allowed 16, 26 & 27 points (JAX, KC, BALT).

 

Forecast

Oakland 26 Denver 20

 

YPR = Yards Per Rush

YPS = Yards Per Pass

YPPL = Yards Per Play

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