NFL Week 9: Monday Night Football – Buffalo @ Seattle

Posted: November 7, 2016

 

Buffalo 43.5 @ Seattle -7

Tuesday November 8, 12:30am AEDT 

Moneyline

 

Buffalo were smoked at home by New England 41-25 in their last game, playing short-handed and facing a revenge minded Patriots team who traditionally beat The Bills badly. The Bills out rushed The Patriots 167-72 total yards and 6.4ypr to 3.1ypr, but were out passed 7.5yps to 5.0yps and out gained 5.9yppl to 5.5yppl for the game. While those stats were somewhat close, Buffalo tacked on yards at the end of the game with New England out gaining Buffalo 6.4yppl to 4.7yppl when the they were leading 41-17.

Seattle continued to struggle on offense in their loss at New Orleans (25-20) and only scored one touchdown on offense as one of their scores came from a defensive fumble return for a touchdown. Seattle was out rushed 123-74 yards even though they averaged 4.4ypr to 3.3ypr for New Orleans. They also out passed The Saints 7.7yps to 6.8yps and out gained them 6.6yppl to 5.2yppl for the game. New Orleans were able to score on their last six possessions of the game, control the clock for about 14 more minutes, and run the ball 18 more times which skewed the the final yppl numbers somewhat. On the penalty count, Seattle was called for 11 penalties that totalled 76 yards to just two penalties and 10 yards for New Orleans.

Buffalo averages 5.5ypr against teams allowing 4.1pr, 5.6yps against 6.3yps and overall 5.5yppl against teams allowing just 5.4yppl. On defence, they are allowing 4.2ypr against 4.0ypr, 6.6yps against 6.4yps and 5.5yppl against 5.4yppl.

Seattle averages 3.2ypr against teams allowing 4.2ypr, throws for 6.9yps against teams allowing 6.5yps and 5.4yypl against teams allowing 5.5yppl. On defence, they allow 3.4ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.9yps against 6.6yps and 4.9yppl against teams averaging 5.6yppl.

Bills RB LeSean McCoy says he’s ready but he has been limited in practice this week so how much he will play is still a question mark.

For Seattle, DE Michael Bennett had surgery this week and has been ruled out and S Kam Chancellor did not practice again on Friday and could miss.

Buffalo qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 273-140-24. My numbers favour Seattle by only three points and project about 40 points.  Neither of these teams turn the ball over, especially the Bills, who have only recorded four turnovers this year. Seattle has only scored more than 27 points once this year and that was against lowly San Francisco, however the defence continues to play very well, having allowed more than 18 points only twice this year in games against Atlanta (24) and New Orleans (25). Although they allowed both of those teams to score in the twenties, they were nine points below Atlanta’s season average and four points below the Saints season average. Seattle has only played one team above .500 this year and defeated the Falcons 26-24 in that game. They’ve only won two games by more than two points this year.

Buffalo hasn’t been any more dominant as they have only defeated one team with a winning record this season and that was a New England without Brady so one could say they haven’t defeated a team with a winning record as yet. With the exception of the heavy loss last week to New England, the Bills haven’t been defeated by more than six points this year and I don’t mind throwing out last week’s result because of the superiority of The Patriots compared to the rest of the NFL teams. I don’t expect Buffalo to meet their seasonal offensive numbers in this game, much like Atlanta and New Orleans didn’t, but Buffalo has scored at least 25 points in six of its last seven games. The only game was their 16-0 win at New England. This is just too many points for an offense that is really struggling and not likely to get many turnovers to help their offense out, seeing that the Bills rarely turn the ball over.

 

Forecast

Seattle 20 Buffalo 17

 

YPR = Yards Per Rush

YPS = Yards Per Pass

YPPL = Yards Per Play

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