Jacksonville 43 @ Tennessee -3.5
Friday October 28, 11:25am AEDT
Jacksonville came up short at home as two-point favourites against Oakland, losing 33-16. Jacksonville ran for 6.6ypr and allowed 4.2ypr. They threw for 5.4yps and allowed the same, 5.4yps. Overall, they out gained Oakland 5.7yppl to 5.4yppl. The final numbers are somewhat skewed because Oakland ran the ball 18 more times, while Jacksonville threw the ball seven more times. Jacksonville’s problems weren’t moving the ball, it was their inability to reach the end zone during their drives, either turning the ball over by an interception, or settling for a field goal (three times). A fumbled punt on the Jacksonville 17 yard line also gave Oakland the ball, which they converted into a field goal.
Tennessee jumped out to a 6-0 lead after their first drive of the game (botched the extra point snap), but Indianapolis came right back to score the next 17 points (last three points on a surprise onside kick following their second touchdown) and took a 17-6 lead. Tennessee came back and took a 23-20 lead with six minutes left in the game but couldn’t hold on and allowed Indianapolis to go ahead with just under two minutes to play. Tennessee out rushed Indy 4.4ypr to 3.4ypr but were out passed 8.3 yps to 5.2yps. Overall, they were out gained 6.5yppl to 4.9yppl.
Jacksonville averages just 3.7ypr against teams allowing 4.1ypr and just 5.9yps against teams allowing 6.7yps. Overall, they are gaining just 5.2yppl against teams allowing 5.7yppl, so well below average on offense. The defensive side of the ball has been very good, especially defending the pass. They allow just 5.4yps against teams averaging 6.3yps and 4.8yppl against teams averaging 5.5yppl. They are slightly above average defending the run as well. But, as good as they are defensively, they are allowing 27 points per game against teams averaging just 24 points per game, which tells me their turnovers are hurting them.
Tennessee comes in averaging 4.9ypr against teams allowing 4.5ypr but they are below average throwing the ball, averaging just 6.4yps against teams allowing 6.9yps. Overall, they average 5.7yppl against teams allowing 5.9yppl. The defence is about average, allowing 5.6yppl against teams averaging 5.5yppl.
Jacksonville lost DT Roy Miller last week, which could impact their rush defense, while DE Jared Odrick and TE Julius Thomas are questionable.
Tennessee will be without CB Perrish Cox and LG Quinton Spain who were both injured early in the Indianapolis game. They will also be without S Rashad Johnson.
I don’t have any situations on this game. If the total were to go back up to 45.5 or higher, this game would qualify in an under situation, which is 287-199-2. My numbers predict Tennessee by four points and project about 40 points.
This has been a very close game in Tennessee the last three years with Tennessee winning by three points last year, two points the year before and losing by two points the year before that. Tennessee is 0-7-1 ats when laying points at home. On the flip side Jacksonville is just 2-17 SU on the road their last 19 games although they won their last road game two weeks ago at Chicago. They are 6-6-1 ats the last 13 games where they have been installed as road dogs of four or less points and have been more competitive on the road when a small underdog.
Jacksonville’s defence is playing well and is the better defence of the two teams and they are getting points. I don’t have enough to make them a best bet but I will lean their way and lean to the under as well.
Tennessee 21 Jacksonville 20
YPR = Yards Per Rush
YPS = Yards Per Pass
YPPL = Yards Per Play