Philadelphia -4.5 @ Dallas 42.5
Monday October 31, 11:30am AEST
Philadelphia comes off a big 21-10 upset win at home over Minnesota last week. They out rushed the Vikings 3.9ypr to 3.4ypr and out passed Minnesota 4.9yps to 4.0yps. Overall, they out gained the Vikings 4.4yppl to 3.8yppl.
Dallas comes off their bye week following an upset win at Green Bay, winning 30-16 and forcing Green Bay to turn the ball over four times in the game. The Packers allowed the Cowboy rushing game to run for 191 yards at 5.8ypr, while rushing for just 3.3ypr themselves. Dallas threw for 8.0yps while Green Bay threw for 6.8yps. Despite running the ball nine more times and allowing GB to throw the ball 14 more times, Dallas still out gained Green Bay 6.8yppl to 5.6yppl.
Philadelphia averages 4.1ypr against 4.5ypr, 6.4yps against 6.7yps and 5.4yppl against 5.8yppl. They allow 4.5ypr against 4.2ypr, 5.6yps against 6.6yps and 5.2yppl against 5.7yppl.
Dallas averages 4.8ypr against 4.3ypr, 7.5yps against 6.5yps and 6.1yppl against 5.6yppl. They allow 4.3ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.7yps against 6.5yps and 5.9yppl against 5.6yppl.
Philadelphia is relatively healthy but will be without DT Bennie Logan and CB Ron Brooks. The Cowboys are likely to get back WR Dez Bryant and CB Morris Claiborne.
The Cowboys qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 576-389-27. Off the back of their home underdog win last week, Philly qualifies in a negative road situation if they are an underdog of five or more points, which is 96-32-3 and plays against them here. This game also qualifies in an under situation as long as the total is 42 points or more, which is 146-70-3. My numbers favour Dallas by three points before considering the situation and project about 42 points.
Philadelphia has struggled on the road this year, going just 1-2 straight up, losing to both teams that are above .500 (Detroit & Washington). The Washington game was not close even though the final score showed 27-20, as Philly scored on an interception return and kick return. Even last week eight of Philly’s points were scored on a kick return. Philly allowed 24 and 27 points in those games against Detroit and Washington. Meanwhile, since week two, Dallas has scored at least 24 points in every game this year. They’ve also allowed more than 17 points only twice and that was in weeks one and two (20 & 23 points). The Eagles offense is below average so even though Dallas is not a great defence, they aren’t facing an upper tier offense either. The Cowboys have a long history of not covering when at home but this year they are 2-0-1 against the spread and appear to be changing that culture. Philadelphia has scored at least 20 points in every game this year but I think that stops this week.
Dallas 24 Philadelphia 13
YPR = Yards Per Rush
YPS = Yards Per Pass
YPPL = Yards Per Play