NFL: Week 6 – Philadelphia Eagles @ Carolina Panthers

Posted: October 12, 2017

Philadelphia Eagles @ Carolina Panthers

Friday October 13, 11:25am AEDT

Moneyline

Philadelphia Eagles

Philadelphia handled Arizona with ease last week 34-7. It was a very bad match up for Arizona and their ill equipped offensive line and no running game. Philly held the ball for almost 11 minutes longer and out gained Arizona 6.5yppl to 5.1yppl and out gained them both rushing and passing the ball.

Philadelphia rushes for 4.5ypr against teams allowing 4.3ypr, throws the ball well, averaging 6.8yps against teams allowing just 6.2yps and overall averages 5.8yppl against teams allowing 5.4yppl. The defence has been a little below average allowing 6.8yps against teams averaging 6.5yps. That’s a reflection of their secondary being below average along with injuries they’ve experienced there this year as well. Overall, they allow 6.0yppl against teams averaging just 5.6yppl.

Carolina Panthers

Carolina went on the road and for the second consecutive week came away with a very respectful victory. After disposing of New England two weeks ago Carolina jumped out to a big lead against Detroit and then held on for a 27-24 victory. While Carolina couldn’t run the ball averaging just 1.0ypr they averaged 9.3yps. They sacked Detroit six times and held the Lions to just 4.7yps. Overall, Carolina out gained Detroit 5.7yppl to 4.3yppl in an impressive display.

Despite the last few weeks of success offensively on the road Carolina’s offense is still below average from the line of scrimmage. They average just 3.4ypr against teams allowing 3.9ypr and 6.8yps against teams allowing 6.9yps. As a whole on offense they average just 5.2yppl against teams allowing 5.7yppl. The defence, however, has been very good. The pass defence allows 5.2yps against teams averaging 6.1yps and overall, they allow just 4.8yppl against teams averaging 5.2yppl

Verdict

My numbers favour Carolina by just two points and project about 42 points. I don’t have any situations on this game.

Philly has managed at least 20 points in every game this year and their only loss was a hard fought seven-point loss at Kansas City, who we now know is no slouch either. And, they’ve totalled at least 26 points in all but that one game in KC. Carolina has faced three below average offenses and allowed 3, 3 and 24 last week to Detroit. They held Detroit down and then gave up some garbage points in the fourth quarter with a large lead. But, the two good offensive teams they have faced they have allowed 34 to NO and 30 to NE. I don’t put Philadelphia’s offense in the same category but they are above average so I would not be surprised if Philadelphia gets into the 20’s in this game.

Philly is 8-2-1 to the over on the road since Doug Pederson took over as head coach last year. Other than his initial game at Chicago last year where the Bears lost a ton of players to injury during the game, Philadelphia has allowed at least 24 points in nine of their last ten road games. They allowed Washington only 17 points opening week but a bunch of miscues kept Washington from scoring more. They’ve totalled at least 41 points in every game. Obviously 41 points doesn’t get over this total but this game is likely to get into the 20’s for both teams so a call on the under could be dangerous.

I don’t have a strong opinion on this game. The better defence at home against a below average defence and laying a short number is usually a pretty good recipe but my numbers don’t quite get me there.

Forecast

CAROLINA 24 PHILADELPHIA 21

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