NFL Week 6: Monday Night Football – NY Jets @ Arizona

NY Jets (45.5) @ ARIZONA (-7.5)

Tuesday October 18, 11:30am AEDT

Moneyline

 

The Jets failed to score in the second half against Pittsburgh and lost 31-13 in a game Todd Bowles twice decided to punt late in the game down by two scores. NY rushed for 4.2ypr but just 72 yards and did hold Pittsburgh to 2.5ypr but they allowed the Steelers to throw for 7.8yps on 372 yards. NY averaged 6.0yps and Ryan Fitzpatrick avoided the interception bug but it wasn’t enough. Overall, the Jets were out gained 6.0yppl to 5.4yppl.

Arizona went to San Francisco on Thursday night and came away with a 33-21 victory behind Drew Stanton replacing Carson Palmer. The Cardinals ran for 172 yards at 4.6ypr but allowed SF 151 yards at 4.2ypr. They averaged only 4.0yps but held SF to 3.6yps and sacked SF seven times.

They also benefited from three turnovers and a roughing the kicker penalty which helped extend a drive. Those three turnovers turned into three scoring drives for Arizona that totalled only 41 yards. Overall, Arizona out gained SF 4.4yppl to 3.9yppl.

The Jets offence has been about average this year gaining 5.4yppl against 5.2yppl. The rush defense has been outstanding allowing just 3.0ypr against 4.2ypr. But, they are allowing 8.2yps against 6.2yps and overall allow 6.2yppl against 5.4yppl.

Arizona has averaged 4.5ypr against 3.6ypr but just 5.8yps against 6.8yps. Overall, they average 5.3yppl against 5.5yppl. On defence, they allow 4.1ypr against 4.0ypr but just 5.0yps against 6.2yps. Overall, the Cardinals allow 4.6yppl against 5.2yppl.

The Jets will likely be without LB David Harris. Three other players are listed as questionable – CB Darrelle Revis, C Nick Mangold and TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins.

For Arizona they could be down two significant offensive lineman. LG Mike Iupati is listed as doubtful. RG Evan Mathis is already out for Arizona. DL Ed Stinson is also out for Arizona.

Arizona qualifies in a negative situation that plays against large mediocre favourites, which is 183-90-6, including 54-29-1 since 2008. The Jets also qualify in a 228-145-11 situation that plays on teams who have performed poorly on offence the last few weeks. Tennessee qualified in this situation last week. My numbers favour the Cardinals by eight points and project about 49 points.

Going back to 2010 the Cardinals are just 8-16 ats when laying three or more points at home. Arizona’s offence has struggled this year and don’t be fooled by the 33 points they put up last week against a bad SF defence as they were gift wrapped many of those points because of turnovers.

The Jets, on the other hand, have allowed at least 23 points in every game so something will give in this game. And, the Jets haven’t scored more than 17 points over the last three weeks. But, as I noted above, that actually puts them in a good situation.

Arizona has played two games against teams below .500 and won those games by 33 and 12 points. They’ve played three games against teams over .500 and lost those games by 2, 15 and 4 points. They get another team below .500 on Monday. If the Jets are a playoff team, they will make this game difficult for Arizona. If they are not, this game will end up like the TB and SF blowout wins for Arizona.

The Jets defensive line should create some problems for Arizona’s injured offensive line and Carson Palmer is a statue back there. If Arizona can’t run the ball and that isn’t easy against the Jets it could create sack opportunities. The situations favour the Jets and I’ll bet they keep this close when nobody is counting on them.

 

Forecast

ARIZONA 27 NY JETS 24

 

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