NFL Week 4: Monday Night Football – Minnesota @ NY Giants


Minnesota -5 @ NY Giants 43

Tuesday October 4, 11:30am AEST 



The Giants come off a home loss to the Redskins 29-27 and for the second straight week they look good in the stats department but played a close game. Last week they were able to escape the Saints but not this week. They gained 120 yards rushing at 5.7ypr and 337 yards passing at 8.4yps. Overall, they totalled 457 yards at 7.5yppl and allowed the Redskins 403 yards but at just 5.9yppl. Washington controlled the ball for about seven more minutes. The Redskins also averaged 8.2yps but just 3.0ypr in the game. The Giants committed two more turnovers than Washington that helped to lead to their demise in the game.

The Vikings fell behind at Carolina 10-0 and then rattled off the next 22 points to win 22-10. Minnesota had another poor game running the ball, gaining just 58 yards at 2.4ypr. They did throw for 5.1yps and held Carolina to just 4.6yps, with a lot of that coming because they sacked Cam Newton eight times in the game. Minnesota was out averaged in the game 4.3yppl to 3.9yppl but Carolina threw the ball 14 more times than Minnesota. Carolina also turned the ball over three times in the game.

The Giants come in averaging just 3.9ypr against 4.8ypr but are averaging 7.9yps against teams allowing just 7.6yps. Overall they average 6.3yppl against 6.5yppl. The defence has been outstanding. They allow just 3.2ypr against 4.0ypr, 6.1yps against 7.3yps and 5.0yppl against 6.1yppl.

Minnesota averages just 2.1ypr against 3.2ypr so neither team is rushing the ball well so far this year. The Vikings are average throwing the ball and overall average 4.6yppl against 5.2yppl. On defense they are allowing just 3.5ypr against 4.6ypr and 4.9yps against 5.9yps. Overall, they allow just 4.4yppl against 5.4yppl.

The Giants are without RB Shane Vereen, possibly RB Rashad Jennings and may be without CB’s Eli Apple and Dominique Rogers-Cromartie. They are also down two safeties, Darian Thompson and Nat Berhe. On offence they are without RT Marshall Newhouse.

The Vikings are relatively healthy with the exception of DT Sharrif Floyd.

Minnesota qualifies in a Monday night situation, which is 42-12-2 and also undefeated home teams in the fourth week playing non-divisional games perform very well. They are 29-10-0 and if this line were to come back down to under four those teams are 16-0-0 ats. The Giants do qualify in an early season situation, which is 110-52-7.

I make the number in this game Minnesota by -3.5 and only predict about 30 points in the game. The Giants were a banged up and bad team late in the year last year when these two played and Minnesota won 49-17. Both of these defences are very good so it’s just hard to believe both teams can get into the 20’s. And, if they can’t it’s likely this game goes under the total. If this line would come to down to -3 I’d look Minnesota’s way as well.



Minnesota 24 NY Giants 13

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