NFL Week 3: Sunday Night Football – Chicago @ Dallas

Posted: September 26, 2016

Chicago 44 @ DALLAS -6.5 

Monday September 26, 10:30am 

Moneyline

 

Not only did Chicago lose as a three point home favourite on Monday night last week to Philadelphia. They also lost their starting quarterback, Jay Cutler, who is probably replaceable. But, they also lost numerous starters on defence, that aren’t as easily replaced. They out gained Philadelphia 6.9yps to 5.0yp but Philly had the ball for about 12 more minutes and controlled the clock all night long.

Dallas pulled off an upset in Washington 27-23 as Dak Prescott continues to develop. Dallas was out rushed 4.8ypr to 3.4ypr (rushed for 102 to 82) but out passed Washington 8.2yps to 7.3yps. Overall, Washington out gained Dallas 6.6yppl to 5.9yppl but they threw the ball 14 more times, and Dallas ran the ball 13 more times.

The Bears have not run the ball well this year, gaining just 3.6ypr against 4.8ypr but thrown the ball for 6.1yps against 5.5yps. Overall, up to this point, they have been average at 5.2yppl against 5.2yppl.

The defence has been fantastic defending the pass, allowing just 5.4yps against 6.3yps. Overall, they allow 4.5yppl against 4.9yppl but they will be challenged this week with all the injuries.

Dallas averages just 3.4ypr against 3.8ypr and 5.1yppl against 5.4yppl so they are just below average on offence. The defence allows a whopping 4.8ypr against 3.7ypr and 6.3yppl against 6.2yppl overall.

Chicago would qualify in an early season situation, if they are a dog of less than seven, that plays on road dogs early in the season that were not very good last year and takes advantage of extra line value.

That situation is 110-52-7 and 6-4 so far this year. I make the number Dallas by one point before all the injuries last week. Even with the injuries I can’t see this line being more than three points. This game also qualifies in a week three under situation, which is 20-4-0.

Dallas hasn’t won a home game without Tony Romo at quarterback since 2010. Dak Prescott has been very serviceable for the Cowboys so far this year but has yet to throw a touchdown pass.

The Bears are down their best defensive lineman, linebackers and possibly safeties. Brian Hoyer will start at quarterback for Cutler but that is not a loss for the Bears. The real losses come on the defensive side of the ball.

Going back to 2010 Dallas is just 8-27 ats as a home favourite. They are almost an automatic play against as a home favourite regardless of the situation. On top of that Chicago was 6-2 ats as a road dog last year although they failed to cover in that spot this year at Houston week one of the season.

 

Forecast

Dallas by 1

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