NY Jets (-1.5) @ Buffalo (40)
Friday September 16, 10:25am
Both teams come in 0-1 on the season. The Jets lost at home to Cincinnati 23-22 but missed an extra point that that came back to bite the Jets and they failed to put Cincinnati away early in the game when they had a chance. They also picked up an extra 10 points on drives of just 39 and 28 yards. NY rushed for 152 yards, averaging a healthy 5.1ypr while allowing just 57 yards at 3.0ypr. NY threw for just 188 yards at 5.2yps but allowed 324 yards at 8.8yps to Cincinnati.
Cincinnati picked up 157 yards passing on just three different pass plays that went for 54, 54 and 49 yards. The Jets lost the game despite generating seven sacks in the game. The Bengals out gained NY 6.8yppl to 5.2yppl. The Jets also shot themselves in the foot by committing 95 yards in penalties to just 44 yards for Cincinnati.
In Baltimore, Buffalo lost a close game to the Ravens 13-7 but looked horrible in doing so. They rushed for just 65 yards and 2.7ypr and threw for a measly 95 yards at 4.0yps. Buffalo’s defence, which has been decimated because of injuries and suspensions, looked pretty good. They allowed just 3.0ypr (83 yards) and 225 yards passing at 5.9yps.
The Bills continued their losing ways by committing penalties. They committed 89 yards in penalties to just 35 yards for Baltimore.
The Jets have not fared well here in Buffalo. They have lost four straight games in Buffalo and five straight games to Buffalo. In those five games they have an 18-1 deficit in turnover margin. They lost both games last year by the score of 17-22. NY was 0-3-2 on the road last year as a favourite (covered against Miami but that was a neutral site game in London), including losing the final game of the season at Buffalo as three point favourites. The Jets never topped more than 23 points on the road last year in true road games.
The Bills will be without LT Cordy Glenn and that creates a bad match up against the Jets. WR Sammy Watkins is also questionable and is likely to play but he may be limited with his foot injury. The Jets will get back Sheldon Richardson on the defensive line. He missed last week due to a suspension.
I don’t have any betting strategy in this game although the Jets would have qualified in a strong fundamental rushing situation had they remained dogs of three or more points, which they were very early on Sunday evening. Since then the line has continued to move in the Jets favour and they are now favoured in this game.
No starting LT for the Bills and a banged up WR Sammy Watkins, who is really the only WR threat for Buffalo. I’m not a fan of the large line move in favour of the Jets but will lean their way because of the fundamentals and a stronger lean to a low scoring game. The total has moved down as well. If the total were to get back to 42 or higher I’d consider it a best bet.
NY Jets 20 Buffalo 17