NFL Week 16: Monday Night Football – Detroit @ Dallas

Posted: December 27, 2016

Detroit 44 @ Dallas -6.5

Tuesday December 27, 12:30pm AEDT 

Moneyline

 

Detroit (9-5)

Detroit comes in average on offense as they are below average running the ball at 3.7ypr against 4.1ypr but above average throwing the ball at 6.6yps against 6.3yps. Overall that translates to 5.5yppl against teams giving up 5.4yppl. The defense is below average allowing 4.2ypr against 4.0ypr, 6.8yps against 6.3yps and 5.8yppl against 5.4yppl.

Dallas (12-2)

Dallas comes in averaging 4.8ypr against 4.3ypr and 7.2yps against 6.4yps. Overall they average 6.0yppl against teams giving up 5.5yppl so they are well above average on offense. The defense allows 3.9ypr against 4.1ypr, 6.5yps against 6.3yps and 5.6yppl against teams averaging 5.5yppl so they are slightly below average defensively but they only allow 18 points per game against teams averaging 21 points per game because they control the ball and limit the opponent’s possessions.

Key Stats

DetroitPFPAOFRYPROFPYPSYPPLDFRDYPRDFPDYPSDYPPL
Offence2220823.72546.65.5994.22486.85.8
Defence23211054.12376.35.410042446.35.4

DallasPFPAOFRYPROFPYPSYPPLDFRDYPRDFPDYPSDYPPL
Offence26181544.82357.26803.92656.55.6
Defence22211124.32456.45.51014.12476.35.5

OFR – Offensive yards rushing
OFP – Offensive yards passing
DFR – Defensive yards rushing allowed
DFP – Defensive yards passing allowed
YPR = Yards Per Rush
YPS = Yards Per Pass
YPPL = Yards Per Play

Rosters

  • Detroit could likely be without C Travis Swanson against this week as well as RB Theo Riddick and CB Darius Slay. Slay would be a big loss in the secondary.
  • Dallas DE DeMarcus Lawrence is out.

The Verdict

I don’t have any situations on this game. My numbers favor Dallas by 7.5 points and project about 46 points. With the Giants loss on Thursday night Dallas has wrapped up everything in the NFC and is now the number one seed so they have nothing left to play for. Detroit has allowed 20 or less points in eight straight games but their defensive numbers remain well below average. Detroit did hold a good New Orleans offense to just 13 points back in week thirteen but the Saints averaged 6.5yppl in that game but turned the ball over three times. They also held Washington to just 17 points in week seven but allowed 6.0yppl but forced two turnovers in that game. They allowed 34 points on the road at Green Bay but were pretty decimated on defense because of injuries.

Since their second home game of the season Dallas has scored at least 26 points in every home game. The Cowboys have also allowed more than 23 points just twice this year, which was to the two best offenses they have faced in Washington and Pittsburgh. Dallas is one of those teams you can pretty much write down for 27 points or more at home. The question becomes how many points can Detroit get? In this game a balanced Dallas offense is likely to get their 27-30 points and I expect Detroit to be able to get to 20. If that happens this game goes over the low total.

Forecast

Dallas 30 Detroit 20

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