NFL Week 15: Thursday Night Football – LA Rams @ Seattle

Posted: December 15, 2016 at 4:25 pm
Champion_Bets

LA Rams 38.5 @ Seattle -16

Friday December 16, 12:25pm AEDT 

Moneyline

 

LA Rams (4-9)

The Rams begin the week by firing Jeff Fisher. That was long overdue as is getting rid of GM Les Snead but that’s probably set for the offseason. The Rams lost at home to Atlanta 42-14 and were down 42-0 before getting a couple of meaningless touchdowns in the fourth quarter. Atlanta scored 14 points on defensive scores and after kicking off, began their first drive of the game on the three yard line 10 seconds into the game following a fumble on the kickoff return.

The Rams were sacked five times, averaged just 4.7yps to 6.9yps for Atlanta but did rush for 104 yards at 4.5ypr to just 2.6ypr for Atlanta. Overall, Atlanta out gained the Rams 5.0yppl to 4.7yppl.

The Rams average just 3.4ypr against teams allowing 4.1ypr, 5.5yps against teams allowing 6.5yps and 4.7yppl against teams allowing 5.5yppl. The defence is above average, allowing 4.2ypr against teams averaging 4.2ypr but just 6.0yps against teams averaging 6.6yps and 5.3yppl against teams averaging 5.6yppl. Despite being above average from the line of scrimmage, they allow 23 points per game against teams averaging 23 points per game because of turnovers, such as last week.

Seattle (8-4-1)

Seattle was probably equally disappointed after their 38-10 loss at Green Bay. The Seahawks did rush for 136 yards at 5.2ypr and held GB to 3.1ypr. GB did crush Seattle through the air, throwing for 9.1yps to just 5.2yps for Seattle. The Seahawks turned the ball over six times, including five interceptions by Russell Wilson, some of which were bobbled balls by the wide receivers and not Wilson’s fault. Overall, GB out gained Seattle 5.9yppl to 5.2yppl but Seattle threw the ball 16 more times.

Seattle is above average, gaining 4.2ypr against 4.2ypr, 6.8yps against teams allowing 6.5yps and 5.8yppl against teams allowing 5.6yppl. But, their offense has been inefficient, and thus averages just 21 points per game against teams giving up 24 points per game. The defence has been very good, giving up 3.5ypr against teams averaging 4.2ypr, 6.3yps against 6.4yps and 5.1ypl against 5.5yppl.

Key Stats

OaklandPFPAOFRYPROFPYPSYPPLDFRDYPRDFPDYPSDYPPL
Offence1523813.42055.54.71104.223065.3
Defence23231094.12486.55.51104.22456.65.6

SeattlePFPAOFRYPROFPYPSYPPLDFRDYPRDFPDYPSDYPPL
Offence21181044.22556.85.8993.52336.35.1
Defence24231104.22466.55.61124.22416.45.5

OFR – Offensive yards rushing
OFP – Offensive yards passing
DFR – Defensive yards rushing allowed
DFP – Defensive yards passing allowed
YPR = Yards Per Rush
YPS = Yards Per Pass
YPPL = Yards Per Play

Rosters

  • For the Rams DE Robert Quinn, CB E.J. Gaines, S Maurice Alexander, RB Benny Cunningham are either out, doubtful or very unlikely to play.
  • For Seattle, RB C.J. Prosise and DE Damontre Moore are out. Of course, S Earl Thomas was put in IR before last week’s game.

The Verdict

My numbers favour Seattle by 11 points and project about 36 points. Large divisional favourites, such as Seattle, coming off a loss do not historically perform well. Seattle qualifies in a negative situation, based on that concept, which is 48-18-0 and plays against Seattle in this game. The Rams have won four of the last five games between these two teams, including a 9-3 decision in LA earlier this year when the Seahawks were really beat up.

In the Pete Carroll era, these teams have faced each other 13 times and only three times have the Rams lost by more than 16 points and those losses were by 18, 17 and 17 points. In Seattle during that same time span, only two games have totalled 40 or more points over the last six years.

The games are 5-1 to the under. During Carroll’s era in Seattle they have been favoured by 14 or more points six times. They have scored at least 26 points in each of those games and you can probably count on at least 30 for Seattle in this game. Five of those six games totalled more than 40 points. The Rams have allowed 49, 26 and 42 points in their last three games.

Meanwhile, they have scored 14 or less points in six of their last seven games. The Rams defence is above average and maybe the Fisher firing will motivate them but the real question is can their offence do anything. I’m highly sceptical that they can. Seattle likely gets to 30 points and if the Rams can’t score more than 14 points, they won’t cover this game. I’m not interested in going against the situation playing against Seattle but I’m also not interested in laying the points either.

Forecast

LA Rams 14 Seattle 30

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