NFL Week 15: Monday Night Football – Washington @ Carolina

Washington 50.5 @ Carolina -6.5

Tuesday December 20, 12:30pm AEDT 

Moneyline

 

Washington (7-1-5)

Washington’s offense continues to thrive in both the run game and passing game, averaging 4.5ypr against 4.1ypr, 7.7yps against 6.4yps and 6.5yppl against 5.5yppl. Their offense is second to Atlanta’s in efficiency. The defense, however, struggles allowing 4.5ypr against 4.1ypr, 6.5yps against 6.2yps and 5.7yppl against 5.4yppl.

Carolina (5-8)

Carolina struggles to run the ball at just 3.9ypr against 4.2ypr and therefore is averaging just 5.2yppl against 5.4yppl. The defense has been above average against the run, allowing just 3.7ypr against 4.0ypr but below average against the pass at 6.6yps against 6.5yps and 5.5yppl against 5.5yppl.

Key Stats

CarolinaPFPAOFRYPROFPYPSYPPLDFRDYPRDFPDYPSDYPPL
Offense24261093.92316.35.2903.72726.65.5
Defense23241114.22416.35.410242546.55.5

WashingtonPFPAOFRYPROFPYPSYPPLDFRDYPRDFPDYPSDYPPL
Offence25241104.53037.76.51134.52586.55.7
Defence2122994.12446.45.51064.12436.25.4

OFR – Offensive yards rushing
OFP – Offensive yards passing
DFR – Defensive yards rushing allowed
DFP – Defensive yards passing allowed
YPR = Yards Per Rush
YPS = Yards Per Pass
YPPL = Yards Per Play

Rosters

  • For Washington, their official report is not completed yet but it appears they may be without LB’s Will Compton and Su’a Cravens.
  • For Carolina DE Charles Johnson and T Daryl Williams are out. It appears LB Luke Kuechly will return this week

The Verdict

I don’t have any situations on this game. My numbers favor Washington by 7.5 points and project about 52 points. Washington went seven straight games not covering as a home favorite but they have now covered their last three games as a home favorite. They’ve also gone over the spread in five straight games as a home favorite and they’ve actually gone over in 16 of their last 18 games period. Carolina has also gone over the total in 10 of their last 11 games as road underdogs, dating back to Sept. of 2014. They have gone over twice this year at Oakland and Seattle. On the road against above average offenses this year, Carolina has allowed 48, 41, 35 and 40 points. They now get a very good Washington offense in this game.

But, they are also playing a below average defense in Washington and Carolina has scored 33, 38 and 32 points on the road against below average defenses this year. The Redskins have scored at least 23 points in 10 of their 13 games this year. The three games they scored less than 23 were week one against Pittsburgh, against a good Ravens defense and against the Lions without TE Jordan Reed. The Redskins have also allowed at least 20 points in 12 of their 13 games (Baltimore’s anemic offense only scored 16 points). The five games where teams scored 20 or 22 points were against horrible offenses such as Cleveland, Detroit, Philadelphia twice and Minnesota. So, average to better than average offenses have all scored at least 24 points against Washington and all but one of those teams scored 27 or more. It’s very likely Washington gets into the 30’s in this game and Carolina gets into the 20’s in this game.

As for the side, although my numbers suggest slight value on Washington, the Redskins have only won two games by more than seven points this year. They beat Cleveland by 11 in a game the refs screwed Cleveland on a fumble that changed that game around and beat GB by 18 when the Packers were left with you and me playing in the secondary in the fourth quarter of that game due to injuries. Carolina comes close to qualifying in a late season situation that plays against teams like Washington who need to win the game. Best bet here is on a high scoring game.

Forecast

Washington 31 Carolina 24

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