NFL Week 14: Sunday Night Football –Dallas @ NY Giants

Posted: December 12, 2016

 

Dallas -3.5 @ NY Giants 46.5

Monday December 12, 12:30pm AEDT 

Moneyline

 

Dallas (11-1)

The Cowboys continue to roll averaging 4.8ypr against 4.2ypr, 7.6yps against 6.4yps and 6.2yppl against 5.5yppl. The defense is below average allowing 4.1ypr against 4.1ypr, 6.6yps against 6.4yps and 5.8yppl against 5.5yppl.

NY Giants (8-4)

The Giants have struggled to run the ball gaining just 3.5ypr against 4.1ypr and are just average throwing the ball at 6.4yps against 6.4yps. Overall they gain just 5.4yppl against 5.5yppl. The defense is allowing just 3.6ypr against 4.1ypr, 6.1yps against 6.4yps and 5.2yppl against 5.5yppl.

Key Stats

DallasPFPAOFRYPROFPYPSYPPLDFRDYPRDFPDYPSDYPPL
Offence28191564.82407.66.2824.12776.65.8
Defence23211104.22456.45.51004.12526.45.5

NY GiantsPFPAOFRYPROFPYPSYPPLDFRDYPRDFPDYPSDYPPL
Offence2020783.52516.45.4913.62676.15.2
Defence22221034.12466.45.51024.12546.45.5

OFR – Offensive yards rushing
OFP – Offensive yards passing
DFR – Defensive yards rushing allowed
DFP – Defensive yards passing allowed
YPR = Yards Per Rush
YPS = Yards Per Pass
YPPL = Yards Per Play

Rosters

  • Dallas are again without CB Morris Claiborne. S J.J. Wilcox is also out. KR Lucky Whitehead was left home for this game as well.
  • The Giants will be without DE Jason Pierre-Paul, S Nat Berhe and LB Mark Herzlich.

The Verdict

My numbers favour Dallas by just ½ point and project about 46 points. Dallas qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 201-114-14 but the Giants qualify in a late season home dog situation, which is 144-87-7. This game also qualifies in under situations, which are 246-164-5 and 287-199-2. Revenge spot for Dallas as they try and make amends for their week one loss at home to this Giants team 20-19. As it turns out it is currently the only loss of the year for Dallas, but it was week one for the rookies who are playing much better now and Dallas was banged up on defence at that time.

The Giants six game winning streak came to an end at Pittsburgh last week and they didn’t look good in that game. Six of the Giants eight wins this year have come against losing teams. So, the jury is still out on how good they really are. The defence is pretty good and has allowed more than 24 points just once.

The Dallas defence may not be as good but their offense puts their defence in favourable situations and limits how much time they have to be on the field. Consequently, they have allowed more than 23 points just twice and those games were against good offenses, Pittsburgh and Washington. Interesting that both of these teams two worst defensive performances (points wise) both came against Pittsburgh and Washington.

The Giants offense isn’t in that same league. So, we have two teams who don’t give up a lot of points, and some good situations on the under in this game. With that said, both of these teams figure to get into the 20’s in this game so I am a little reluctant to go under the total but I will lean that way. I also think the line has started to catch up to Dallas a little, evidenced by their ability to win these last two games but not cover them, getting back doored very late in both games.

Forecast

Dallas 23 NY Giants 22

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