NFL Week 13: Sunday Night Football – Carolina @ Seattle

Posted: December 5, 2016

Champion_Bets

 

Carolina 44 @ Seattle -7

Tuesday December 5, 12:30pm AEDT 

Moneyline

 

Carolina (4-7)

Carolina lost a wild and entertaining game at Oakland last week 35-32. The Panthers fell behind 24-7 before scoring the next 25 points to grab the lead 32-24 only to allow the Raiders to score the game’s final 11 points. They out rushed Oakland 5.2ypr to 1.8ypr and both teams averaged 7.6yps. Overall, Carolina out gained the Raiders 6.5yppl to 5.1yppl, despite Oakland throwing the ball 11 more times in the game. The Raiders controlled the clock for about seven more minutes in the game.

Seattle (7-3-1)

Seattle ran into a buzz saw early and often last week in TB. They fell behind 14-0 in the first quarter and never really threatened after that. The Seahawks finally saw Russell Wilson use his legs last week as he contributed 80 of the 127 rushing yards. But, Seattle allowed 7.9yps to TB and averaged only 3.0yps themselves, which included being sacked six times. Seattle lost the time of possession battle by about seven minutes as well.

Key Stats

 

CarolinaPFPAOFRYPROFPYPSYPPLDFRDYPRDFPDYPSDYPPL
Home25261093.92436.45.4793.32756.75.5
Away24241144.32446.35.51043.92596.65.5

SeattlePFPAOFRYPROFPYPSYPPLDFRDYPRDFPDYPSDYPPL
Home2017893.72556.95.61003.52376.15
Away23241124.22456.45.51154.32436.55.6

OFR – Offensive yards rushing
OFP – Offensive yards passing
DFR – Defensive yards rushing allowed
DFP – Defensive yards passing allowed
YPR = Yards Per Rush
YPS = Yards Per Pass
YPPL = Yards Per Play

 

Rosters

  • Carolina will play without star LB Luke Kuechly and S Kurt Coleman. Their leader in sacks, DE Mario Addison is also out. RT Darly Williams will miss the gameand they’ve already placed LT Michael Oher and C Ryan Kalil  and Kalil’s backup Gino Gradkowski on injured reserve.
  • Seattle RB C.J. Prosise is out but they get back S Earl Thomas and DE Michael Bennett so they are relatively healthy for this game.

The Verdict

My numbers favor Seattle by seven points and project about 40 points. Carolina qualifies in a road situation playing on them for their success against the spread last week, which puts them in a favorable situation on the road this week. The situation is 111-52-2. Seattle lost twice to Carolina last year, including being bounced out in the Divisional round of the playoffs so the Seahawks may be playing for a little more than just a bounce back off their loss last week. Carolina is 4-0-1 ats after their spread cover last week at Oakland as a road dog. They’ve also gone over the total in nine of their last ten games on the road as underdogs. That includes scoring 50 and 48 points here in Seattle in two games. In games more competitively priced (Seattle as a favorite of seven or less), they’ve gone over the total in five of their last six games at home. Five of Carolina’s seven losses have been by three or less points. Seattle’s only wins by more than seven points this year are against the lowly 49ers and Jets and they defeated Philadelphia by 11 a few weeks ago. I’ll side with Carolina here but there is a fear that the injuries, combined with last week’s loss could spell trouble for Carolina. The loss last week probably put a nail in the coffin of the Panthers minds for the playoffs and one has to hope they don’t quit on the season.

Forecast

Seattle 27  Carolina 22

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