NFL Week 13: Monday Night Football – Indianapolis @ New York Jets

Posted: December 5, 2016

Champion_Bets

 

Indianapolis -1.5 @ New York Jets 48.5

Tuesday December 6, 12:30pm AEDT 

Moneyline

 

Indianapolis (4-5)

The Colts were forced to start Scott Tolzien in place of Andrew Luck last week and lost to Pittsburgh 28-7. Indy twice went for it on fourth and goal from inside the five-yard line only to be stopped but I honestly believe Pittsburgh could have scored more if they wanted to. They shut it down once they felt they had the game under control. Indy was out rushed 5.1ypr to 4.0ypr, out passed 10.5yps to 5.5yps and out gained overall 7.4yppl to 4.9yppl. They were sacked three times and tossed two interceptions.

New York Jets (3-6)

The Jets played a great game against New England but fell just short 22-17. Most impressive was New York’s ability to out pass The Patriots 8.2yps to 5.7yps. Overall, they out gained the Pats 5.9yppl to 5.3yppl despite New England throwing the ball 17 more times. It was two costly fumbles that did in the Jets. One that got New England going when they were down 10-0 and then one late in the game with the Jets trying to make one final drive to win the game.

Key Stats

IndianapolisPFPAOFRYPROFPYPSYPPLDFRDYPRDFPDYPSDYPPL
OFFENCE2527953.92576.35.41164.62797.26.2
DEFENCE23231034.12466.45.51074.22446.45.5

NY JetsPFPAOFRYPROFPYPSYPPLDFRDYPRDFPDYPSDYPPL
OFFENCE18241114.32266.25.4853.52636.75.5
DEFENCE21211104.12396.35.41054.22396.25.4

OFR – Offensive yards rushing
OFP – Offensive yards passing
DFR – Defensive yards rushing allowed
DFP – Defensive yards passing allowed
YPR = Yards Per Rush
YPS = Yards Per Pass
YPPL = Yards Per Play

Rosters

  • The Colts are likely without LB Robert Mathis, S Clayton Geathers and CB Patrick Robinson. They will get Luck back this week and T.Y. Hilton and CB Vontae Davis should be available as well.
  • The Jets C Nick Mangold has a good chance to return but there is concern WR Brandon Marshall could miss this game. S Calvin Pryor is still in concussion protocol and could miss this game as well.

The Verdict

My numbers favor the Jets by 2.5 points and project about 50 points. The Jets qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 576-389-27. Indianapolis is 1-5 ats as a road favorite of seven or less in their last six games. Included in those numbers is a neutral site game in London this year against Jacksonville. They’ve also gone over the total in 8 of their last 10 games on the road as favourites of seven or less. They’ve allowed at least 24 points in 9 of those 10 road games. That’s consistent with their road games this year, where they’ve allowed 26 or more points in every road game.

As a road favourite, the Colts are also typically scoring points. They’ve now scored at least 27 points in 9 of their last 10 road games where they’ve been listed as the favourite of seven or less points. The Jets have been competitive at home this year in games Ryan Fitzpatrick has played, having gone 3-1 ats in a one-point loss to Cincinnati, a 10-point loss and non-cover against Seattle, an eight-point win over Baltimore (Ravens were banged up) and a five point covering loss last week against the Patriots. As bad as the Jets have been this year, their defense has allowed more than 28 points just one time. If they hold the Colts to 27 or less points in this game, there’s a good chance they win this game. New York defeated the Colts on the road as seven point dogs last year 20-7 in a game they completely controlled. The Jets pass defense is not as good this year but they held New England to just 5.7yps last week so they have been playing better as of late. Fitzpatrick has a much better quarterback rating at home with the Jets than on the road. The Colts also don’t create turnovers, which is what has historically killed Fitzpatrick.

Forecast

NY Jets 27 Indianapolis 24

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