NFL Week 12: Sunday Night Football – Denver @ Kansas City

Posted: November 28, 2016

Champion_Bets

 

Denver -3.5 @ Kansas City 38.5

Monday November 28, 12:30pm AEDT 

Moneyline

 

Denver (7-3)

Denver comes off of their bye week and a dramatic 25-23 win over New Orleans when they blocked an extra point and took it back for a two point conversion to win the game. New Orleans dominated the game from the line of scrimmage. Other than an opening drive of 85 yards for a touchdown, Denver’s scoring drives consisted of 7, 43, 27 and 2 yards. New Orleans out rushed them 3.8ypr to 2.8ypr, out passed them 9.8yps to 5.1yps and out gained Denver overall 7.3yppl to 4.1yppl. Denver did control the clock by about 19 minutes and New Orleans was minus two in turnovers.

Kansas City (7-3)

Kansas City was banged up last week and lost the turnover battle, which usually spells doom for them. They lost at home to Tampa Bay 19-17 and a costly interception in the end zone set them back to a point they couldn’t overcome. The game was played pretty evenly. Kansaw City out gained Tampa Bay 6.6yppl to 6.0yppl.

Key Stats

  • KC averages 4.1ypr against 4.0ypr, just 6.3yps against 6.8yps and 5.4yppl against 5.7yppl.
  • KC allow 4.5ypr against 4.1ypr, 6.4yps against 6.3yps and 5.7yppl against 5.5yppl.
  • Denver is averaging 3.7ypr against 4.2ypr, just 6.0yps against 6.8yps and 5.1yppl against 5.8yppl.
  • They allow 4.4ypr against 4.1ypr, just 5.2yps against 6.7yps and 4.8yppl against 5.6yppl.

Rosters

  • Kansas City LB Dee Ford, WR Jeremy Maclin and DE Jaye Howard are out.
  • Denver is in good shape health wise.

The Verdict

I don’t have any situations on this game. My numbers favor Denver by 6.5 points and project about 35 points. Kansas City is just 2-6 ats the last eight times they have been a road underdog. Denver went through a stretch of being over valued at home and struggled to cover but they have covered three of four home games as favorites this year (covered as a home dog as well) and the one cover they didn’t get was when they started Payton Lynch at quarterback. So Trevor Siemian is now 4-0 ats at home this year.

Since the beginning of last year where Denver became a defensive minded team and less of an offensive minded team they are 6-2-2 to the under when installed as home favorites. Over the last five years these two teams have played to a 0-3-2 to the under here in Denver. Meaning they have gone under three times with two pushes but no overs. DT Derrick Wolfe returns as does CB Aqib Talib. Without Talib the last three games, they have allowed 19,30 and 23 points. Prior to that they hadn’t allowed more than 23 points. That 23 point game came against Atlanta and their high powered offense. That is not what Kansa City is about.

There are rarely any big plays in the Kansa City offense. They play ball control offense and don’t turn the ball over, which eats up clock in large chunks. Kansas City does not have the same dominating defense this year as in years past, yet they held all but three teams to 19 or less points this year. The three teams who scored more than 19 points were New Orleans (21), which is understandable, Pittsburgh on the road (43), which is very understandable and San Diego (27) the first week of the season when the Chargers were healthy on offense. The Denver offense isn’t any of those offenses. Unless turnovers produce short drives or immediate points, this game figures to be a game played under 20 points for both teams. Kansas City has lost three games with two of them on the road but the two games they played on the road against teams with good defenses, they struggled. They lost 19-12 at Houston and ultimately won 20-17 over Carolina but needed a fierce comeback in the fourth quarter to win a game they were behind 17-0. But, Denver is just 1-2 SU against teams above .500 this year, as is Kansas City.

Forecast

Denver 17 Kansas City 14

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK Under 38.5 pts

 

 

YPR = Yards Per Rush

YPS = Yards Per Pass

YPPL = Yards Per Play

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