NFL Week 12: Monday Night Football – Green Bay vs Philadelphia

Posted: November 28, 2016

Champion_Bets

 

Green Bay 47.5 @ Philadelphia -4

Tuesday November 29, 12:30pm AEDT 

Moneyline

 

Green Bay (4-6)

The Packers were blown out at Washington last week 42-24. The game wasn’t so much about Washington being better than Green Bay but rather Green Bay losing bodies left and right during the game as well as going into the game with limited bodies. Once the injuries started piling up in the game they were in trouble and it showed in the fourth quarter. GreenBay was out rushed 5.0ypr to 4.4ypr, out passed 11.4yps to 7.4yps and out gained overall 8.3yppl to 6.5yppl. A minus two in turnovers and a missed field goal didn’t help The Packers either.

Philadelphia (5-5)

Philly was beaten soundly at Seattle 26-15, where they gave up 152 yards rushing at 5.1ypr while gaining 4.3ypr themselves. They were out passed 8.7yps to 4.1yps and out gained for the game 7.0yppl to 4.2yppl. The Eagles were also minus two in turnovers.

Key Stats

  • GB averages 4.6ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.9yps against 6.4yps and 5.5yppl against 5.5yppl.
  • GB allow 3.8ypr against 4.1ypr, 7.5yps against 6.8yps and 6.0yppl against 5.8yppl.
  • PHI averages 4.3ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.9yps against 6.4yps and 5.2yppl against 5.5yppl.
  • PHI allow 4.5ypr against 4.0ypr, but just 6.3yps against 6.9yps and 5.5yppl against 5.7yppl.

Rosters

  • Philadelphia will be without RB Ryan Mathews and RT Halapoulivaati Vaitai.
  • Green Bay Guard TJ Lang is likely out but they have not produced their final injury report yet.

The Verdict

Green Bay is coming off a road loss last week but teams on the road again this week are usually pretty good bets coming off a loss. The Packers qualify in 165-101-4 and 182-103-3 situations based on that premise. My numbers favour Philadelphia by four points and project about 44 points. Green Bay is really banged up and it’s showing in their performance, having now allowed at least 30 points in six of their last seven games. They’ve also scored at least 23 points in six of those same seven games and getting back Jared Cook last week at TE is what The Packers were looking for all year. He opened up their offense and for the first time in a while we saw Green Bay throw the ball down the field.

Green Bay, playing their third straight road game and fourth in five weeks, must now go to Philadelphia, who have been dominant at home this year. They’ve won every game at home by at least nine points with victories over Atlanta, Pittsburgh, Minnesota and Cleveland. They haven’t allowed more than 15 points in a home game, including that game against a very good Atlanta offense and only three points against Pittsburgh. This would seem like a no brainer on Philadelphia but the NFL doesn’t work that way. This is one last gut check game for Green Bay to save their season. In addition, Philadelphia doesn’t have the same weapons Washington had last week to take advantage of the porous secondary Green Bay has. That alone can keep Green Bay in this game because the Packers offense appears to be getting back in sync and should produce some points. The Packers appear to be getting back CB Damarious Randall and LB Jake Ryan on defense. That’s a huge plus if they can come back and contribute. Gut check time for Green Bay and an offense that is starting to move the ball. They’ll get some help on defense to go up against a rookie quarterback and an offense that lacks the same downfield threats that have beaten them the past few weeks.

Forecast

Philadelphia 21 Green Bay 20

 

YPR = Yards Per Rush

YPS = Yards Per Pass

YPPL = Yards Per Play

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