NFL Week 11: Thursday Night Football – New Orleans @ Carolina

CAROLINA -3 New Orleans 52

Friday November 18, 12:25pm

Moneyline

 

New Orleans had a back breaking loss at home last week to Denver. The Saints scored and only had to make the extra point to win the game in the last minutes of the game. Unfortunately not only did they not make the extra point because it was blocked, but it was also returned for a two point conversion and New Orleans lost 25-23.

NO dominated the game from the line of scrimmage. Other than an opening drive of 85 yards for a touchdown, Denver’s scoring drives consisted of 7, 43, 27 and 2 yards. NO out rushed them 3.8ypr to 2.8ypr, out passed them 9.8yps to 5.1yps and out gained Denver overall 7.3yppl to 4.1yppl. Denver did control the clock by about 19 minutes and NO was minus two in turnovers.

Carolina had an equally frustrating loss after building a commanding 17 point lead and seemingly on their way to an easy win. KC was never able to score an offensive touchdown in the game.

Their only touchdown came on an interception return for a touchdown and they added four other field goals, including one to end the game after a fumble recovery in their 20-17 victory.

Carolina was out rushed in the game 4.6ypr to 3.4ypr but out passed KC 6.1yps to 4.0yps and controlled the clock by about 11 minutes.

NO averages 4.1ypr against 4.2ypr, 7.5yps against 6.4yps and 6.2yppl against 5.5yppl. They allow 4.1ypr against 4.0ypr, 7.4yps against 6.7yps and 6.1yppl against 5.6yppl.

Carolina averages 4.0ypr against 4.3ypr, 6.5yps against 6.2yps and 5.4yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow 3.4ypr against 3.8ypr, 6.8yps against 6.5yps and 5.5yppl against 5.4yppl.

New Orleans is without LT Terron Armstead. CB Delvin Breaux is questionable and would be a significant loss if he can’t play this week.

Carolina is relatively healthy, missing only LT Michael Oher, in terms of significant players.

I don’t have any situations on the side in this game but it does qualify in an under situation, which is 287-199-2. The Saints are not the same team on the road.

Over the last 30 games on the road when they have been an underdog, NO has only scored 27 or more points in eight of those games and only four of those 30 games have they scored 30 or more points.

At the same time in those games, their defence has allowed 17 of 30 teams to score 27 or more points and 13 of those 30 games the opponent has scored 30 or more points.

But, the Saints are 11-3 ats the last 14 times they have been installed as road dogs. They’ve also played under in six of their last seven road games when they’ve been underdogs.

Carolina is 23-4 SU in their last 27 home games as home favourites, but they’ve lost three of their last four home games as favourites. They’ve only allowed more than 24 points at home as a favourite three times in the last 27 games. It’s tough to determine the state of mind for both of these teams after both teams lost key games last week in heartbreaking style.

The Saints have been solid as underdogs and its always dangerous giving Drew Brees points. But, knowing the Saints don’t typically have success scoring on the road as an underdog and their defence allows a fair amount of points on the road as an underdog, makes it tough to cover a short number.

That’s especially true when you know the Panthers haven’t allowed more than 24 points very often as a home favourite. I’ll call for a four point game and let the line decide which way I lean.

 

Forecast

CAROLINA 27 NEW ORLEANS 23

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