New England Patriots
The Pats come off a bye week and a 21-13 home win over the Chargers. They were out rushed in that game 7.5ypr to 3.0ypr but an 87-yard run totalled about half of the Chargers rushing yards or it would have been 3.5ypr. The passing numbers were about even. Overall, the Chargers out gained NE 6.7yppl to 5.0yppl but the Chargers gained 5.1yppl without the 87-yard run.
The Pats average 6.0yppl against teams allowing 5.4yppl. The defence is still well below average from the line of scrimmage allowing 6.6yppl against teams averaging 5.6yppl. But, they allow just 22 points per game against teams averaging 23 points per game.
Denver is well below average on offense averaging just 4.9yppl against teams allowing 5.4yppl. The Broncos are still well above average from the line of scrimmage allowing just 4.7yppl against teams averaging 5.5yppl. But, because of their -12 in turnover margin they are allowing 25 points per game against teams averaging 23 points per game.
The Broncos fell behind early at Philadelphia and it was over in an embarrassing 51-23 loss at Philadelphia. Denver was out rushed 197-35 and 5.3ypr to 1.8ypr, out passed 7.4yps to 4.7yps and out gained overall 6.3yppl to 3.8yppl.
- The Pats will be without DT Malcom Brown, T Marcus Cannon and WR Chris Hogan.
- Denver lists three players as questionable but are healthy beyond that.
My numbers favour NE by about 7.5 points in this game when considering the current form for turnovers. Denver is -12 in turnover margin, including -9 in turnover margin on the road. When factoring in the line of scrimmage numbers one of my models favours Denver by three points. The projected total for this game is 49 points but turnovers have contributed to those numbers as well. But, despite allowing at least 5.4yppl and at least 6.0yppl in three of their last four games, the Pats haven’t allowed more than 17 points in any of those four games.
The Pats have always played better than their numbers would indicate, making them a hard team to handicap from time to time. Denver qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 143-79-5. They also qualify in a bounce back situation, which is 41-17-1 after getting blown out last week.
NE won here last year 16-3 as three-point favourites with a total of 42.5 points. Since the beginning of 2015, however, Denver is 5-1 ats as a home dog, including 2-1 ats against NE. NE hasn’t totalled more than 41 points in any of their past four games. Coming into last week’s game Denver hadn’t scored more than 19 points in any of the past five games. They scored 23 last week but got a defensive score and a late offensive score. Both touchdowns came after they were down 44-9. If NE continues to play the way they have on defence, it’s hard to believe Denver can get to 20 plus points in this game. The Broncos defensive numbers are still very good. They just need to stop turning the ball over.
Denver doesn’t turn it over nearly as much at home as they do on the road. They will also try and run the ball here as much as possible to keep the ball out of the hands of Tom Brady. That’s sometimes easier said than done, of course. Denver hasn’t allowed more than 23 points at home or more than 4.9yppl at home. The 23 came from the Giants and seven of those points came on a pick six. Once again, if they avoid the major turnovers, they can stay in this game and it should be a low scoring game. The Broncos defence is still in the top ten in the league in allowing the fewest big passing plays
NEW ENGLAND 20 DENVER 17