Miami needed a late score plus a two-point conversion to either cover or push the 3/3.5-point line last week at home against the Raiders. Miami out rushed Oakland 4.8ypr to 3.1ypr but were out passed 9.5yps to 7.2yps. Both teams gained 6.5yppl in an evenly played game.
Miami continues to be well below average, both from the line of scrimmage and in points scored. They average just 4.4yppl against teams allowing 5.3yppl and just 14 points per game against teams allowing 22 points per game. The defence is average allowing 5.4yppl against teams averaging 5.4yppl.
Carolina is also well below average on offense gaining just 4.8yppl against teams allowing 5.5yppl. But, their defence is well above average, allowing just 4.9yppl against teams averaging 5.4yppl.
Carolina fell behind 10-0 at home to Atlanta and looked like they were done before they got a key turnover with Atlanta driving just before the half. Ultimately, they grabbed a 14-10 halftime lead and controlled the game from there in the second half on their way to a 20-17 win. But, like Atlanta has done all year, Carolina was out gained 6.1yppl to 5.2yppl, including being out passed 7.6yps to 5.2yps. Carolina did rush for 201 yards at 5.3ypr to just 53 yards at 2.9ypr for Atlanta.
My numbers favour Carolina by just six points and project about 32 points. Miami qualifies in a situation based on their cover loss but close game last week, which is 111-52-2.
Miami is in the bottom ten of the league in generating big pass plays. Carolina is almost there as well as they sit 12th from the bottom. On the defensive side of the ball both teams are just outside the ten best teams in the league at preventing big pass plays from the opposing offense. The only points Miami has scored this year are games at home, against well below average defences in the Jets and the Raiders, where they scored 31 and 24 respectively. Every other game they’ve scored 20 or less points. The defence has played well although they’ve allowed 27 or more in three straight games. Technically, they allowed 40 at Baltimore but 14 came on turnovers so really 26 points.
Carolina has played great defence this year and against below average offenses like Miami they’ve allowed 3, 3, 24 and 17 points. The 24 came against Detroit where they held a 27-10 lead in the fourth quarter at Detroit and went into a prevent defence and allowed the Lions two scores in the final five minutes of the game. Chicago scored 17 points but 14 came on defensive scores. So, it doesn’t figure that Miami will generate much offense in this game. On the other hand, Carolina has only topped 20 points once this year when facing an average to above average defence, so they don’t figure to score many points either. Going all the way back to 2012 Miami has not fared well on the road as a dog of more than seven points, going just 2-7 ats although they did cover at Atlanta this year. They are also 7-2 to the under in those games, including the last five games, which goes back to 2015.
Miami gets S T.J. McDonald back from suspension in this game and he should help their defence. Carolina has played four games this year where they haven’t allowed a touchdown, and this could be another one of those games.
CAROLINA 17 MIAMI 13