Newcastle Newmarket Handicap, Wednesday 16th March 2016: The Betfair Insider

Posted: March 16, 2016 at 10:43 am

Current Track Rating: Good 4

Rail: True

Weather Forecast:

Wednesday – Max 23°C. Showers easing.


R6 Newcastle Newmarket Handicap Open Quality G3 1350m

Speed Map

newcastle newmarket handicap

Race Profile

  • 3 of past 5 winners have been 6 weeks or more between runs (First up)
  • 0 of past 5 winners have been the SP favourite
  • 1 of past 5 winners have won at their previous start
  • 3 of past 5 winners have carried 54kg or less


Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Good, Rail True

1st Laser Hawk – BR 6 59kg SP $9.50 – 1st up, 18 weeks, 15th Epsom Handicap Group 1 1600m Randwick

2nd Scorpio Queen – BR 4 54kg SP $26 – 2nd up, 1.5 weeks, 9th Wenona Girl Group 3 1200m Randwick

3rd Mighty Lucky – BR 1 54kg SP $4F – 5th up, 1.5 weeks, 2nd National Sprint LR 1400m Canberra

Good, Rail True

1st Mecir – BR 11 54kg SP $5.50 – 1st up, 6 week freshen, 4th February Handicap 1400m Rosehill

2nd Strawberry Boy – BR 2 55kg SP $4.40F – 2nd up, 2.5 weeks, 7th Rewards Hcp 1500m Rosehill

3rd Slow Pace BR 6 57kg SP $26 – 1st up, 25 weeks, 3rd Prix Deauville Group 2 2500m France

Good, Rail True

1st Bello – BR 3 54kg SP $8.50 – 6th up, 2.5 weeks, 1st Grand Pavilion Hcp Group 1 1000m Flemington

2nd Laser Hawk – BR 7 59kg SP $11 – 2nd up, 3.5 weeks, 8th Apollo Stakes Group 2 1400m Warwick Farm

3rd Famous Seamus – BR 4 54kg SP $7 – 2nd up, 1.5 weeks, 6th Liverpool City Cup Group 3 1300m Warwick Farm

He’s Remarkable – BR 4 58kg SP $4.60 – 1st up, 18 weeks, 2nd Railway Stakes Group 1 1600m Ascot  

Keepin The Dream – BR 6 53kg SP $21 – 2nd up, 1.5 weeks, 12th Liverpool City Cup G3 1300m W Farm

Major Players 

3. Ecuador: He wasn’t suited by the muddling pace of the G1 Canterbury Stakes 1300m and simply was no match for those with a better turn of foot, however was only beaten 3.6L by Holler. His best performances are at 1600m and expect Blake Shinn to wind him up earlier to offset his turn of foot.

5. Saddler’s Lake: A progressive horse from the Chris Waller yard who won brilliantly first up last time in. He’s had two quiet trials leading into this and the blinkers have been applied for the first time, which is a real sign of intent. I really like his progression as a horse and was more than happy with his 3.9L effort to Winx in the Group 1 Epsom Handicap. Looks to be the horse that best fits the profile.

6. Bull Point: A dominant winner over the mile at Randwick last time and has been given a trial between runs to stay up to the mark. He’ll be driven out to the lead again and needs to be able to maintain those sectionals against his rivals here. The horse hits this race in great form and has the recent win on the board to say he is a great chance.

7. Aomen: The knockout of the field who finds his way into this race first up off just the one quiet trial. His first up efforts in recent times have had hidden merit. First up in the Liverpool City Cup he was only beaten 2.2L by It’s Somewhat on a day you didn’t want to be on the fence. At his next first up attempt he was hidden negatively from a wide gate before storming home in the Show County Stakes. With a nice draw here he’s a horse that will benefit most by a slow early tempo as his turn of foot is lethal fresh.

12. Queen Of Kariba: Mare that’s been in work a long time but races with her runs spaced by 3-4 week gaps. Last start she hit a peak performance in the G2 Guy Walter Stakes defeated by Solicit over 1400m. Despite never winning beyond 1250m that recent performance holds her in good stead for this race, which could be run with a similar race shape. Looks over priced at $21 in early markets if she can bounce out of the Guy Walter Stakes run.

14. Nancy: A progressive mare from the Peter and Paul Snowden yard. She was terrific first up at Randwick in a BM85 when flashing home under unsuitable circumstances on the day. She’s always promised a lot and finds a winnable race if she’s improving. At this stage she has been priced on potential and today will be a good test for her against some more season rivals so expect her to drift from $4.80 in early markets. We learn most about her today.


Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Saddler’s Lake – 2 units at $6 or more

Back on Betfair BACK (E/W) Aomen – 1 unit win and 1 unit to place

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Queen Of Kariba – 1 unit



** Speed Maps courtesy of


Good Luck Backing & Laying.

The Betfair Insider