Moonee Valley, Thursday 24th March 2016: The Betfair Insider – William Reid Stakes

Posted: March 23, 2016 at 4:39 pm

Current Track Rating: Soft 6

Rail: True

Weather Forecast: www.bom.gov.au

Thursday 24th – Max 20°C. Shower or two.

 

R6 William Reid Stakes WFA G1 1200m

Speed Map

william reid stakes

Race Profile

  • 3 of past 5 winners have come through the Newmarket Handicap
  • 4 of past 5 winners have been older horses (4YO+)
  • 2 of past 5 winners have been the SP favourite (both times Black Caviar)
  • 3 of past 5 winners have been 3rd
  • 4 of past 5 winners have drawn Barrier 8 or closer

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Good, Rail True

1st Lucky Hussler – BR 2 58.5kg SP $12 – 1st up, 20 weeks, 2nd Emirates Stakes Group 1 1600m Flemington

2nd Vain Queen – BR 9 56.5kg SP $5 – 2nd up, 4 weeks, 4th Oakleigh Plate Group 1 1100m Caulfield

3rd Griante – BR 11 56.5kg SP $31 – 3rd up, 3 weeks, 1st Wenona Girl Group 3 1200m Randwick

Good, Rail +2m

1st Spirit Of Boom – BR 8 58.5kg SP $5.50 – 3rd up, 2 weeks, 2nd Newmarket Hcp Group 1 1200m Flemington

2nd Fontelina – BR 6 58.5kg SP $16 – 2nd up, 2 weeks, 13th Newmarket Hcp Group 1 1200m Flemington

3rd Unpretentious – BR 3 58.5kg SP $26 – 3rd up, 2 weeks, 9th Newmarket Hcp Group 1 1200m Flemington

Good, Rail True

1st Black Caviar – BR 6 56.5kg SP $1.03 fav – 2nd up, 5 weeks, 1st Lightning Stakes Group 1 1000m Flemington

2nd Karuta Queen – BR 2 56.5kg SP $51 – 2nd up, 3 weeks, 3rd Bob Hoysted Listed 1000m Flemington

3rd Fawkner – BR 4 58.5kg SP $26 – 1st up, 19 weeks, 2nd Emirates Stakes Group 1 1600m Flemington

Foxwedge – BR 1 56kg SP $12 – 3rd up, 2 weeks, 3rd Newmarket Hcp Group 1 1200m Flemington

Black Caviar – BR 6 56.5kg SP $1.09 fav – 3rd up, 2 weeks, 1st Newmarket Hcp Group 1 1200m Flemington

Major Players 

1. Lucky Hussler: He drops back in distance from running an unlucky second in the CF Orr Stakes 1400m which has not provided the winner of this race in the last five years. The 40 day freshen up is ideal to get the speed back into his legs, as Lucky Hussler despite winning this race first up last year is better suited to 1400 – 1600m races. Once again, drawn ideally and will be charging late however he’s yet to win off a freshen up.

2. Flamberge: Winner of the Oakleigh Plate against the profile, he’s is one of two Moody runners looking to send the trainer out with a Group 1 win. The Oakleigh Plate form looks particularly strong this year with The Quarterback and Griante since winning Group 1’s. He looks a terrific chance if he can bounce of such a big performance in the Oakleigh Plate. The only question is has that run flattened him? At double figure odds it’s a risk worth taking remembering his two runs at this venue in spring behind Chautauqua (McEwen) & Buffering (Moir).

3. The Quarterback: He was a shock winner of The Newmarket Handicap and meets Flamberge 5.5kg worse off from their Oakleigh Plate runs. He’ll get back to flash late so he definitely needs luck on this tight turning circuit but looking purely at the profile it’s easy to make a strong case for him.

6. Churchill Dancer: This 5YO is in career best form running an outstanding second to Holler in the Australia Stakes before a close up fourth in the Newmarket. He isn’t particularly well in at WFA, having to rise 6.5kg from The Newmarket but is drawn well to say he can be in the finish.

9. Japonisme: He was weighted to win The Newmarket but the race was run at a muddling tempo and perhaps his jockey should have forced his hand. Despite a close up fifth he meets his Newmarket rivals 3kg better at WFA and from a wide barrier he’ll have to be on the speed. He looks a horse suited to the style of racing at The Valley despite 3YO’s having a poor record over the past five years.

10. Holler: This 3YO has come back a different horse. He showed tremendous improvement to win the Australia Stakes first up and then, although flattered by a soft lead was able to hold off some seasoned rivals in what is a very strong form race the Canterbury Stakes. Drawn well in 7, he’ll push forward to position outside the leader. Undefeated at The Valley so impossible to dismiss

12. Kinglike: A lightly raced 3YO from the Moody stable, he’s been targeted at this race for quite sometime. He ran a terrific race first up in Sydney when narrowly being run down by English in the Group 2 Challenge Stakes. Once again, this is a jump in class for the 3YO but he is on the upward spiral and must be respected.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Flamberge – 3 units at $10 or more

 

** Speed Maps courtesy of www.racingandsports.com.au

 

Good Luck Backing & Laying.

The Betfair Insider