Moonee Valley, Thursday 24th March 2016: Darren Potter Race Assessments

Posted: March 24, 2016

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Darren Potter – Race Assessments

Moonee Valley, Thursday 24th March 2016

Darren Potter is a professional punter who has come to prominence via the Punters Show website. Since making his set public a few years ago, Darren has returned a profit on turnover each year between 10 and 20%. Darren’s main service of the week is of a Saturday in the same format as what you have with this document.

If you like what you see and would like to subscribe or find out more information, please head to the Punters Show’s buying engine www.12follow.com.au, click on the ‘Racing’ tab and then on the Darren Potter Melbourne icon. There are also regular articles on Darren’s pre and post race views at www.puntersshow.com.au

Prices are derived using his own scale of performance benchmarks applied to predicted race shape and race conditions – assessed market is set to 100%. Darren endeavours to isolate the key runners in each race and look at why they are over or under valued in the market.

The horses tagged as positive have factors that he thinks the early market may have over looked and represent good value; the horses tagged as neutral are solid chances but found in the market; and the negative group are horses identified as over valued.

Interim Set: will be available on Friday to allow customers to lock in Friday corporate prices (as highlighted on the Betting Plan) if desired. The final set will be available after scratchings on Saturday morning. More often than not there will not be any significant difference between the interim set and the final set but at times weather and scratchings can lead to changes in race shape and track pattern.

Betting Plan: Is focussed on the horses in the positive & neutral categories and based on a modified Kelly method using assessed prices, the early market and expected raceday trading to calculate suggested units.

Back to MV with the rail remaining true after it raced reasonably well last week. I’m expecting something similar this week with the track testing but fair; racing off the rail a minor advantage.

Moonee Valley Assessments R1 – 8

MV 2403 R1

Race Overview: Older horses at 1500m.

Map Comment: Prepee gets good control and will kick strongly. Clemency within striking distance.

Tempo: 2L above even.

Positive

Prepee: She’s a 4yo mare racing in peak form. She was good at Caulf when favoured by the map before having a strong conditioning run at MV. She took the benefit of that run to Cran and was strong to the line beating a solid field. She gets good control again and I’m confident she’ll be competitive at big odds.

Neutral

Clemency: She’s a lightly race 4yo mare that is improving with each run. This is the strongest race she’s contested but she’s 3rd up and will be hard to beat.

Better Land: He’s a 4yo stallion that probably needs gelding to fulfil his potential. He’s racing well enough and he’ll be thereabouts.

Raw Impulse: He’s an import having his first Aus run for D.Weir. His record is fair and I’d be inclined to save on him if there is any market confidence.

Market Comment: Into The Mist & Abohar well found with Prepee the value.

MV 2403 R2

Race Overview: Older horses at 2040m.

Map Comment: Will be a testing race.

Tempo: 3L above even.

Positive

Zahspeed: He’s a tough 4yo on-pacer that has raced himself to peak form. The last 200m will test him but Glen Boss is the ideal jockey for him and he’s the horse to beat.

Toss And Tell: He’s a typical C.Waller stayer that is building his form and is set to peak in a suitable city race. The run at Cran was a strong conditioning run and he’ll be strong late.

Word Of Mouth: He’s not an easy horse to catch but his best is good enough and the testing track will suit him.

Negative

Tenacitus: He’s not the most genuine horse and he comes through a soft race which is not the right base for the step up in distance.

 

Market Comment: Tenacitus far too short.

MV 2403 R3

Race Overview: 3yo’s at 1200m.

Tempo: 3L above even.

Positive

Stellar Collision: He was impressive 1st up winning here before running well enough 2nd up despite not being suited by the tempo. He’s better suited back at MV 3rd up +100m with the pressure on up front. He’ll be powerful late and hard to hold off.

Well Sprung: He’s not the most talented horse in this field but he is the most reliable. He’s got two tough 1200m runs under his belt and he’ll be thereabouts at good odds.

Neutral

Top Me Up: He’s a 3yo with enough talent to win Saturday races however he’s been poorly handled at his recent runs. B.Shinn is an excellent rider change and he could improve sharply.

Negative

Keen Array: He drops back significantly in grade from the group 1’s but he looks out of form to my eye.

Market Comment: Keen Array short for a horse coming off two poor runs.

MV 2403 R4

Race Overview: 3yof at 1600m.

Map Comment: Giddyup will make it a test that many of these are not ready for.

Tempo: 3L above even.

Positive

Giddyup: She’s a lightly raced 3yof racing in her purple patch. She presents with only 10 days between runs off a testing 1600m run on this track. Confident she’ll be hard to beat at big odds.

Neutral

Jacqui’s Joy: She’s a filly I’ve got plenty of time for but she is presenting with a softish preparation for the 1600m. C.Williams is a positive engagement and I think she’ll take up a position within striking distance at the 1600m and she’s got the talent to be in the finish.

Labdien: She’s a typically honest C.Waller trained filly that will be minding her business in the back half of the field and is capable of appearing late.

Daniela Rosa: I was keen on her at Flem off the nice win against the males, perhaps the step to 1400m with the gap between runs was a bridge too far. Her run was OK and I’m prepared to give her another chance at big odds.

Market Comment: Open race with the support to be well spread.

MV 2403 R5

Race Overview: Sprinters at 955m.

Tempo: 2L above even.

Positive

Sheidel: She’s a very fast 4yo mare with an outstanding WA record. She’ll sit on-pace in a winnable position and I think she’ll prove far too strong.

Neutral

Bullpit: He’s a horse I often struggle with but he’s competitive on his day. The position behind Fab Fevola is a good place to win from because he always hangs off the rail on the turn.

Beau Rada: He’s a rock solid honest sprinter that always runs well. He’ll be on the back of the fav and will run his usual honest race.

Market Comment: Sheidel seems a generous price.

MV 2403 R6

Race Overview: WFA horses at 1200m.

Map Comment: They’ll all get their chance with the pressure on throughout.

Tempo: 3L above even.

Neutral

Lucky Hussler: He’s an outstanding horse with a long string of high rating runs. He’ll get back in the pack and will need the gaps to arrive but he’ll be too powerful late if he gets a clean run.

Japonisme: I think the step from 1000m to 1200m brought him (and a few others) undone in the Newmarket. The 1200m run will bring him on and he will get into a powerful position without using too much energy. I think he’ll look the winner on the home turn but the run-on horses will be coming.

Kinglike: He’s a talented horse but he does have to step up from 1000m to a high pressure 1200m race. It won’t be easy but he does have the talent to win.

Market Comment: Early market close to the mark.

MV 2403 R7

Race Overview: Mares at 1600m; found it a difficult race.

Map Comment: Will be a testing race.

Tempo: 3L above even.

Neutral

Fenway: She’s the different form in a tricky mares race. On the plus side I really like that she had the testing 1800m run two starts back, on the other side of the coin I think the super slow 2000m is not helpful. In any event she should be strongest at 1600m.

Feliceinne: She’s a mare coming off a big win in the lead up race and everything points to her running well again.

Market Comment: Early market order close to the mark.

MV 2403 R8

Race Overview: Older horses and a 3yo at 1200m.

Tempo: 2L above even.

Positive

Buckler: Really like what he did 1st & 2nd up at 1100m & 1200m and he didn’t cope with the step to a slow 1400m 3rd up. He’s suited dropping back to a solid 1200m and I’m confident he’ll run well at good odds.

Neutral

Caprese: He’s a consistent horse that is racing well without winning. He’s got a strong fitness base and will be strong late.

Heza Ripper: He’s a lightly raced 4yo that I haven’t really got a handle on. His jumpouts have been OK, I’ll be having a good look at him in the mounting yard.

Market Comment: Open race with the support to be well spread.

Betting Strategy

MV Betting Strategy 1

mv 2403 betting strategy 2

Race 1: BACK (WIN) Better Land (1.5 Units), Prepee (2 Units), Clemency  (4 Units) & BACK (PLACE) Prepee (3 Units)


Race 2: BACK (WIN) Zahspeed (4 Units), Word Of Mouth (3.5 Units) & Toss And Tell (3 Units)


Race 3: BACK (WIN) Well Sprung (2.5 Units), Top Me Up (1.5 Units) & Stellar Collision (5 Units)


Race 4: BACK (WIN) Jacqui’s Joy (2.5 Units), Labdien (2 Units), Daniela Rosa (1.5 Units), Giddyup (2 units)



Race 5: BACK (WIN) Sheidel (8 Units) & Bullpit (2 Units) & Beau Rada (1.5 Units)


Race 6: BACK (WIN) Lucky Hussler (5.5 Units), Japonisme (3.5 Units) & Kinglike (2 Units)


Race 7: BACK (WIN) Fenway (5 Units) & Felicienne (2.5 Units)

Race 8: BACK (WIN) Caprese (2.8 Units), Buckler (4 Units), Heza Ripper (2.5 Units)