Moonee Valley, Saturday, 23 January 2015: The Betfair Insider

Posted: January 22, 2016 at 9:28 am

Betfair Insider

Moonee Valley, Saturday, 23 January 2015

Track

Good 3

Rail +3m

Weather Forecast www.bom.gov.au

Friday 22nd – Max 28. Humid. Rain and Storms. 8-25ml of rain (90% chance).

Saturday 23rd – Max 24. Possible shower. 30% chance of rain.

 

R7 Australia Stakes Group 2 WFA 1200m

Speed Map

Australia Stakes

Race Profile

  • 1 of past 5 winners have been SP Favourites, 2012 Black Caviar.
  • 4 of past 5 winners have been ‘fresh’ or first-up into the event
  • 4 of past 5 winners have carried the top weight of 58.5 (2012 Black Caviar 56.5kg)
  • 4 of past 5 winners have been males (2012 Black Caviar – Mare)
  • 5 of past 5 winners have started from barrier 7 or closer

 

Previous Race Winners & Lead Up Result

2015 – Good 4, Rail True

1st – Mourinho – SP $31 58.5kg BR 4 – Let up 12 weeks 7th Mackinnon Stakes G1 2000m Flemington

2nd – It Is Written – SP $9.5 58.5kg BR 5 – Freshened 6 weeks 1st HCP 1200m Moonee Valley

3rd – Dissident – SP $1.85 58.5k BR 6 – Spell 14 Weeks 6th Caulfield Stakes G1 2000m Caulfield

 

2014 – Good 4, Rail True

1st – Richie’s Vibe – SP $4.8 58.5kg BR 7 – Freshened 4 Weeks 2nd Christmas Stakes Listed 1200m Caul

2nd – Moment Of Change – SP $1.9 58.5kg BR 10 – Let up 9 weeks 2nd Winterbottom Stakes G1 1200m Ascot

3rd – It Is Written – SP $15 58.5kg BR 1 – 3rd up 1 week 7th Chester Manifold Stakes Listed 1400m Flemington

 

2013 – Good 3, Rail out 3m

1st – Sea Lord – SP $7.5 58.5kg BR 1 – Freshened 4 weeks 2nd Christmas Stakes Listed 1200m Caulfield

2nd – Pinwheel – SP $2.3 58.5kg BR 2 – Let up 9 weeks 4th Winterbottom Stakes G1 1200m Ascot

3rd – Outlandish Lad – SP $11 58.5kg BR 4 – 2nd up 3 weeks 12th Standish G3 1200m Flemington

 

2012 – Black Caviar – SP $1.02 56.5kg BR 1 – Let up 12 weeks 1st Patinack Classic G1 1200m Flemington

2011 – Whitefriars – SP $6.5 58.5kg BR 7 – 2nd up 2 weeks 2nd Canterbury Classic Listed 1100m Canterbury

 

Major Players

1. Rebel Dane – Make no mistakes, Rebel Dane is the profile horse who’s most suited at weight-for-age conditions. He’s first up here and has a brilliant first up record of 7 starts 4 wins 1 second 1 third. He’s a classy sprinter with 1200m being his ideal distance and loves the sting out of the ground, which is what we can expect come Saturday. Given his racing pattern he can find trouble and consequently has had very little luck in the strongest of Group 1 sprints over this course and distance with only the likes of Buffering, Lankan Rupee and Chautauqua holding him out. If he can replicate his most recent 3rd in the Manikato back in October (they finished off 14 lengths above benchmark) the race is his.

2. Mourinho – Won this race last year off a similar break holding off It Is Written and the fast finishing Dissident. He was able to hold the rail last year and kick through which gave him a big edge on his rivals. He was massive odds last year (SP $31) and will be really competitive again however the expected showers could take a few lengths off him this time around and this renewal looks much stronger than the 2015 edition.

3. Hucklebuck – Is a quality galloper resuming from a 252 day injury layoff. His first-up record is second to none however those wins were; a) in weaker grade and b) never off a break as long as this one. All reports are that Hucklebuck was burly when seen having a gallop between races and at the jump outs recently. He’s being aimed to peek second or third up, perhaps in the Orr Stakes. He’s $8.00 in early markets and looks set to drift given he’ll need to work hard early to find a good position in running.

4. Trust In A Gust – Another resuming from injury. He had a bone chip removed during his break over spring and is looking to return to winning form after a one run preparation. He’s a Group 1 winner, which goes along way in this grade but like previous ‘class gallopers’ resuming his best distances are over further, specifically at 1400-1600m. He races well at Moonee Valley and being an entire expect him to be more forward than usual. Looks overpriced at $11 in early markets if he can find cover and return to his best.

6. Churchill Dancer– 9th up is not something that you would associate with the winners profile for the Australia Stakes but you can’t say that this horse isn’t going well. He chased Durendal hard last start but I have a question mark on his form prior to that run. He’s poorly weighted at WFA and has plenty against.

8. Durendal – He’s the inform galloper who’s won 4 of his past 5 starts. His latest win was a typically courageous on pace         effort when comfortably holding off Churchill Dancer in the Standish Handicap. He has to rise in class and jumps 3kg in weight. He is not a proven WFA galloper and the ratings of his recent wins have him a few lengths below the top 4 saddlecloths. Will try his guts out and prove hard to run down but will be beaten by his ‘classier’ combatants if they turn up with their A game.

11. SirbibleThis Northern Territory based galloper is ‘The Cleaner’ of the sprinting ranks. He jumps well and has been ridden for speed in his only two starts at Moonee Valley and won them both. For that reason he will be short in the market, however this is a big step up in grade and only a dry track with a leaders bias put him in here with a realistic chance of winning. Should the say turnout to be an on pace / rails day then you would seriously consider him. Expect him to drift heavily from $12 in early markets.

12. RageeseThe first of two 3YO’s to take on the older horses. As a 2YO and early 3YO he had never quite grown into his body so we can naturally expect and stronger, more mature galloper to present on Saturday. His best appears to be over longer and has not been seen at the trials. He should be finishing off this race late, but I’d lean towards him second up over 1400m.

13. HollerA jump and run 3YO who put a massive hole in the below benchmark 3YO’s at his last start, at this course and distance. John O’Shea galloped him at The Valley on Tuesday morning and despite not being asked he worked well within himself. He looks to have put on good size and a bold showing wouldn’t surprise. Having said that he has a long way to go in ratings to pick up this race and, like Sirbible, only a severe on pace bias would make me keen to play at the early market price of $8.00

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – WIN – REBEL DANEThe $3.30 on offer looks right in early markets, however I’d wait and see what we are offered on the exchange with $3.70 already available. I’d suggest a 5 unit bet at anything above $3 on the day.

Back on Betfair BACK – WIN – TRUST IN A GUST – He’s the X-factor in the race, 1 unit at $10 or better.

 

** Speed Maps courtesy of www.racingandsports.com.au

Good Luck Backing & Laying.

The Betfair Insider