Moonee Valley, Friday 18th March 2016: The Betfair Insider – Alister Clark Stakes

Posted: March 17, 2016

Current Track Rating: Good 4

Rail: True

Weather Forecast: www.bom.gov.au

Thursday 17th – Max 32°C. Thundery rain overnight.

Friday 18th – Max 20°C. Showers 10–25mm of rain.

 

R6 Alister Clark Stakes 3YO SW Group 2 2040m

Speed Map

Alister Clark Stakes

Race Profile

  • 2 of past 5 winners have come through the Australian Guineas
  • 1 of past 5 winners come through the Autumn Classic
  • 3 of past 5 winners have raced at 1800m or further their previous start
  • 0 of past 5 winners have been the SP favourite (Hvasstan later disqualified)

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Good, Rail True

1st Chill Party – BR 5 57kg SP $8 – 4th up, 1.5 weeks, 1st 3YO BM70 2040m Moonee Valley

2nd Stratum Star –BR 2 57kg SP $2.10F  – 4th up, 2 weeks, 3rd Australian Guineas Group 1 1600m Flemington

3rd Maastricht – BR 11 55kg SP $10 – 4th up, 2 weeks, 3rd 3YO Hcp 1400m Flemington

Good, Rail True

1st Pheidon – BR 9 57kg SP $7 – 5th up, 3 weeks, 3rd 3YO BM72 1900m Canterbury

2nd Cadillac Mountain – BR 2 57kg SP $10 2nd up, 2 weeks, 1st BM 70 1500m Sandown

3rd Surge Ahead – BR 10 57kg SP $4F – 3rd up, 2 weeks, 6th Australian Guineas Group 1 1600m Flemington

Good, Rail True

1st Philippi – BR 7 57kg SP $3.70 – 3rd up, 2 weeks, 6th Australian Guineas Group 1 1600m Flemington

2nd Sheer Talent – BR 4 57kg SP $4 – 4th up, 2 weeks, 3rd Australian Guineas Group 1 1600m Flemington

3rd Gerontius – BR 6 57kg SP $18 – 3rd up, 1.5 weeks, 1st BM 0-72 1800m Sandown

SP Fav Hvasstan 1st (Disqualified)  – 3rd up, 2 weeks, 4th Australian Guineas Group 1 1600m Flemington

Highly Recommended – BR 6 57kg SP $6.50 – 4th up, 2 weeks, 5th Aus Guineas G1 1600m Flemington

Domesky – BR 11 57kg SP $9 – 4th up, 3 weeks, 4th Autumn Classic Group 2 1800m Caulfield

Major Players 

1. Palentino: It’s rare the Australian Guineas winner comes to the Alister Clark and the market has reacted by installing Palentino the early $1.75 favourite. Palentino had to push out of a hole when pocketed by Tarzino in the Guineas and eventually the pair fought out the finish by a narrow, yet ever widening margin.

The predicted rain shouldn’t worry him as he’s already won at stakes level on a slow rated track and the extra distance isn’t a major concern given how strong he was through the line. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him take a more forward position on settling either.

2. Tally: The Autumn Classic winner has won all three starts this time in and has done so with relative ease. His ratings continue to rise as the distances increase and I can see him reaching a new peak in the Alister Clark, which must be a huge concern for fans of Palentino.

Tally maintained his margin after the post in the Autumn Classic showing true staying potential. He is a major danger and is bred to handle the wet. He failed in the G2 Moonee Valley Vase last spring at this distance but this time in his figures suggest he’s a stronger horse.

5. Patch Adams: He finished off the Autumn Classic well after becoming unbalanced approaching the turn and later pulling up lame. He’ll get every favour in running after drawing an inside gate and is a knockout chance.

11. Charlevoix: The lightly raced Mick Kent colt has only had two career starts and his latest was a luckless sixth in the Autumn Classic. After being disappointed for a run approaching the turn he finished under hands and heels riding and is sure to improve with the run.

He is untapped and the 2040m looks ideal at this stage of his career. He is the X-Factor runner in the field.

 

Betting Strategy

BACK (WIN) Palentino – 5 units at $2 or more

BACK (WIN) Charlevoix – 1 unit

BACK (PLACE) Charlevoix – 2 units

 

 

 

** Speed Maps courtesy of www.racingandsports.com.au

 

Good Luck Backing & Laying.

The Betfair Insider