Darren Potter – Race Assessments
Moonee Valley, Friday 18th March 2016
Darren is a professional punter who has been a star performer in the Punters Show team of experts. Since making his set public a few years ago, Darren has returned a profit on turnover each year between 10 and 20%. Darren’s main service of the week is of a Saturday with extended comments for each race, similar to what you see in races seven and eight below. If you would like his full set then please head to the Punters Show’s buying engine, www.12follow.com.au
Prices are derived using his own scale of performance benchmarks applied to predicted race shape and race conditions – assessed market is set to 100%. Darren endeavours to isolate the key runners in each race and look at why they are over or under valued in the market.
The horses tagged as positive have factors that he thinks the early market may have over looked and represent good value; the horses tagged as neutral are solid chances but found in the market; and the negative group are horses identified as over valued.
Interim Set: will be available on Friday to allow customers to lock in Friday corporate prices (as highlighted on the Betting Plan) if desired. The final set will be available after scratchings on Saturday morning. More often than not there will not be any significant difference between the interim set and the final set but at times weather and scratchings can lead to changes in race shape and track pattern.
Betting Plan: Is focussed on the horses in the positive & neutral categories and based on a modified Kelly method using assessed prices, the early market and expected raceday trading to calculate suggested units.
Rain falling in Melbourne on Friday morning, hard to know how wet the track will be, in any event I’m expecting a testing track. Rail back to the true, I think it will race OK with tempo, fitness and handling the conditions more relevant than bias.
Moonee Valley Assessments R1 – 8
Race Overview: Older horses at 1600m.
Comment: Entre Nous straight into the perfect trail in conditions he’ll love. Most will get their chance with Zlatan running them along.
Tempo: 2L above even.
Positive: Entre Nous
Neutral: Zlatan, Monteux
Market Comment: Entre Nous a generous price, I think he’ll be well backed.
Race Overview: 2yo’s at 1200m.
Comment: Tattoo You gets good control, has talent but lacks fitness and experience. ZamZam has a significant fitness edge and will be extremely hard to hold off.
Neutral: Zamzam, Tattoo You, Queen Magdalene
Market Comment: Early market order looks right.
Race Overview: Older horses and the 3yof at the 955m.
Comment: The map is perfect for Very Choosy but I’m just not convinced about her in the testing conditions. Prince Rahy gets his preferred conditions and will be strong late.
Tempo: 2L above even.
Positive: Prince Rahy
Neutral: Very Choosy
Market Comment: Very Choosy well found with Prince Rahy the value.
Race Overview: 3yo’s at 2040m.
Comment: The key to the race will probably be in how well Palentino settles at the 2040m tempo.
Tempo: 1L above even.
Tally: He’s a natural stayer that is having a good prep despite still doing a few things wrong (in the parade). I think he’ll be suited by the conditions and the 2040m tempo and I’m backing him to roll the fav.
Palentino: He’s a very strong 3yo and is clearly going to be hard to beat. He does have to overcome the step from a fast run 1600m to 2040m and that is never easy. He does tend to over race and is likely to use plenty of unnecessary energy mid-race.
Market Comment: I think the gap between Palentino and Tally will narrow.
Race Overview: Older horses at 1200m.
Map Comment: With Meursault out Onerous should get on-pace comfortably.
Onerous: He’s a lightly raced 4yo racing in good form. Gate 1 was a death sentence at his most recent Flemington run and his run was good in the circumstances. He’ll be suited by the conditions and the wide draw; he’s the horse to beat.
Reldas: He’s a get back run-on sprinter that goes well at MV. He’s always dangerous but will be giving away a big start to some handy horses.
Miss Seton Sands: She got the job done against the mares 1st up in Aus in a slowly run race. She maps well and will be thereabouts but this is a much tougher race.
Market Comment: Onerous a generous price.
Race Overview: Mares and the one filly at 1200m.
Comment: Prussian Vixen gets good control and will be extremely hard to get past on the 7 day back up. French Emotion is racing in tremendous form but she’ll have unsuitable conditions to over come and she’ll be chasing another very much in form mare.
Tempo: Just above even.
Positive: Prussian Vixen
Neutral: French Emotion
Market Comment: Prussian Vixen is a tremendous price in the early play.