Magic Millions 2016 Race Day: The Betfair Insider

Posted: January 8, 2016 at 9:29 am

Betfair Insider

Gold Coast, Saturday, 9 January 2016

 

Track: Good 4

Rail: Out 0.5m from 1000m-400m, true remainder

 

Weather Forecast: www.bom.gov.au

Friday 8th – Max 29, Mostly sunny

Saturday 9th – Max 30, Party cloudy

 

R6 Jewell Magic Millions Cup 1400m

Speed Map

magic millions cup

 

Race Profile

  • 3 of past 5 winners had previous run in Sydney
  • 2 of past 5 winners have carried 57.5kg or more
  • 1 of past 5 winners had > 3 weeks since previous run
  • 5 of past 5 winners have drawn barrier 10 or less

 

Previous Race Winners and Lead-Up Result

 

2015 – Good 4, Rail out 1m from 1400-1000m, out 1.5m from 1000-400m, true remainder

1st – Spurtonic – SP$12 58.5kg BR10 – 1st up, 10 weeks, 5th open handicap 1500m Rosehill

2nd – Strawberry Boy – SP$4 59kg BR1 – 4th up, 4 weeks, 3rd G2 Villiers Stakes 1600m Rand

3rd – The Bowler – SP$6.50 54kg BR5 – 4th up, 2 weeks, 1st BM78 1400m Flemington

 

2014 – Good 3, Rail out 0.5m from 1000-400m, true remainder

1st – Velrosso – SP$4 55kg BR7 – 2nd up, 3 weeks, 5th open handicap 1000m Randwick

2nd – Phelan Ready – SP$31 56kg BR8 – 5th up, 3 wks, 10th Lough Neagh Stks 1350m Doom

3rd – Club Command – SP$4.60 57kg BR11 – 1st up, 6 weeks, 1st barrier trial 727m Randwick

 

2013 – Good 3, Rail out 0.5m

1st – Triple Elegance – SP$14 57.5kg BR4 – 5th up, 3 wks, 11th G2 Villiers Stks 1600m W Farm

2nd – Gundy Son – SP$31 54kg BR12 – 5th up, 2 weeks, 6th Listed Goldmarket 1300m Gold Coast

3rd – Stratford – SP$9 54kg BR7 – 3rd up, 3 weeks, 10th Listed Razorsharp 1200m W Farm

 

2012 – Good 3, Rail out 0.5m from 1000m-400m, true remainder

1st – Spirit Of Boom – SP$7 55kg BR7 – 6th up, 2 weeks, 1st Listed Goldmarket 1300m G Coast

2nd – Startsmeup – SP$7 55.5kg BR10 – 3rd up, 3 weeks, 5th Listed Lough Neagh 1350m Doom

3rd – Latin News – SP$9 55.5kg BR3 – 4th up, 5 weeks, 2nd G3 George Moore Stks 1200m Doom

 

2011 – Heavy 8, Rail out 1.5m from 1000m-400m, out 0.5m remainder

1st – Bold Glance – SP$16 53kg BR6 – 3rd up, 2 weeks, 4th open handicap 1200m Toowoomba

2nd – Zero Rock – SP$4.40 55.5kg BR8 – 5th up, 2 wks,  5th Listed Goldmarket 1300m Gold Coast

3rd – Captain Sonador – SP$3.50 60kg BR5 – 7th up, 2 wks, 1st  Goldmarket 1300m Gold Coast

 

Major Players

  1. Lucky Hussler Clearly the best horse in the race and that is reflected by his requirement to carry 60.5kg, or more importantly 3.5kg more than Fontelina, 2.5kg more than Strawberry Boy and 6.5kg over the minimum. He has carried significantly extra weight than his rivals in harder races than this, including his stunning win in the Group 1 Toorak Handicap under 58kg. Freshened since his run in the Emirates Stakes and is sure to be primed for this given the level of prizemoney.
  1. Strawberry Boy Narrowly beaten in this race last year and should take significant improvement from last start when a touch one paced over 1200m. Expect him to improve up to 1400m controlling the speed from an inside gate and prove hard to run down. He meets Lucky Hussler 2.5kg better for finishing in front of him in the Group 1 Rupert Clarke Stakes over this distance at Caulfield. James Mcdonald is another big advantage so expect him to be heavily backed in early markets.
  1. Bachman Unbeaten in two starts since being gelded and is the pick of the horses on the minimum weight of 54kg. Impressed in his win at this track last start and the rise in distance to 1400m is of benefit. Will need a touch of luck in running from his awkward draw but is an improving four-year-old who is finally realising his potential.
  1. Harada Bay Narrowly beaten in this race last year and while it may be a stronger edition, this roughie could certainly surprise. Tends to produce best when kept nice and fresh and won’t be too disadvantaged by a wide barrier as he will look for cover and wind up late.
  1. Murt The Flirt May not have the class of more experienced rivals but gets his chance to feature drawing barrier one with only 54kg. He has had to overcome wide barriers at two previous starts and did concede 5kg to Flippant and Egyptian Symbol at Wyong last time out.
  1. Illustrious Lad Narrowly beaten by Murt The Flirt when they clashed at Ballarat and then was warming up late when fourth at Wyong last start. Like Murt The Flirt, his advantage is his inside barrier and a light weight.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – WIN – Lucky Hussler – 3 units to win

Back on Betfair BACK – WIN – Strawberry Boy – 2 units to win, 4 units to place

 

R7 Gold Coast Magic Millions 3YO Guineas 1400m

Speed Map

magic millions guineas

 

Race Profile

  • 3 of past 5 winners were Male
  • 2 of past 5 winners had previous run in Wyong Magic Millions 3YO
  • 3 of past 5 winners had previous run in Vo Rogue Plate
  • 4 of past 5 winners have been 2 weeks between runs 3rd up or deeper into their preparation

 

Previous Race Winners and Lead-up Result

 

2015- Good 3, Rail out 1m from 1400-1000m, out 1.5m from 1000-400m, true remainder

1st – Deiheros – SP$26 57kg BR7 – 4th up, 2 weeks, 10th G3 Vo Rogue Plate 1300m Gold Coast

2nd – Testashadow – SP$8 57kg BR12 – 4th up, 3 weeks, 1st BM72 1400m Rosehill

3rd – Echo Gal – SP$10 55kg BR9 – 7th up, 3 weeks, 2nd Magic Millions 3Y0 1200m Wyong

 

2014 – Good 3, Rail out 0.5m from 1000-400m, true remainder

1st – Sweet Idea – SP$5 56kg BR13 – 2nd up, 3 weeks, 1st Magic Millions 3Y0 1200m Wyong

2nd – Estonian Princess – SP$13 55kg BR3 – 4th up, 2 weeks, 1st 3Y0 maiden 1400m Randwick

3rd – Enquare – SP$4.40 56kg BR2 – 4th up, 2 weeks, 1st G3 Vo Rogue Plate 1350m Doomben

 

2013 – Good 3, Rail out 0.5m

1st – Saluter – SP$15 57kg BR10 – 5th up, 2 weeks, 4th Group 3 Vo Rogue Plate 1350m Doomben

2nd – Sizzling – SP$3 58.5kg BR16 – 5th up, 2 weeks, 2nd G3 Vo Rogue Plate 1350m Doomben

3rd – Driefontein – SP$7 56.5kg BR3 – 2nd up, 3 weeks, 2nd Magic Millions 3YO 1200m Wyong

 

2012 – Good 3, Rail out 0.5m from 1000m-400m, true remainder

1st – Punch On – SP$9 56kg BR6 – 3rd up, 2 weeks, 1st Group 3 Vo Rogue Plate 1350m Doomben

2nd – Easy Running – SP$7 57kg BR3 – 4th up, 2 weeks, 5th G3 Vo Rogue Plate 1350m Doomben

3rd – Happy Hussy – SP$9 55kg BR10 – 5th up, 2 weeks, 1st F&M BM79 1400m Randwick

 

2011 – Heavy 8, Rail out 1.5m from 1000m-400m, out 0.5m remainder

1st – Torio’s Quest – SP$14 56kg BR16 – 5th up, 6 weeks, 1st Magic Millions 3Y0 1200m Wyong

2nd – Startsmeup – SP$8 56kg BR5 – 3rd up, 2 weeks, 5th 3Y0 handicap 1200m Gold Coast

3rd – Top Drop – SP$4.20 56kg BR10 – 3rd up, 3 weeks, 1st BM85 1400m Randwick

 

Major Players

  1. Mahuta Unbeaten in past four starts, improving from maiden grade to multiples stakes wins. Looks a genuine 1400m-1600m star of the future but the big negative here is the wide gate. He has been most effective when being able to control the race from the front and one can assume he will need to spend plenty of petrol early in this event from barrier 20. Prepared to lay at $4, but can see him getting close to $6 closer to race time which would start to appeal as value. If you want to back him don’t jump in early.
  1. Most Important Loved his run in the 1350m Group 3 Vo Rogue Plate at the Gold Coast, a race that historically is a great guide for this event. He was caught wide for the entire event from a bad barrier and still was the strongest through the line despite copping a decent bump at the top of the straight. Good each-way value despite the overall race time being a tough disappointing last time.
  1. I’m Belucci Resumes first-up since eye-catching second in the Group 1 2000m Spring Champion Stakes during the Sydney spring. No horse in the past five years has even placed running first-up in this race, which is a concern but the increase in prizemoney may offset that stat. The booking of Glen Boss is a solid push and he’s the x-factor horse of the race.
  1. Sir Bacchus Will need an absolute gem of a ride from Damien Oliver given his horror barrier draw. Impressed in two recent wins in Sydney, breaking his maiden in style and then appeared to have more up the sleeve when defeating Barood in a BM70 at Randwick. His sectional data was very strong that day and knowing Chris Waller he’ll improve into this being Grand Final day.
  1. Flippant Won the Wyong Magic Millions contest last start, defeating Egyptian Symbol in good style but extremely wide barrier hampers her chances in this. Won a barrier trial at Randwick since her first-up run and clearly has the form to win this race, just needs luck to fall her way from the bad gate.
  1. Egyptian Symbol Missed the kick last start and then settled on the fence before being hampered in the straight when close third behind Madotti and Most Important in the Group 3 Vo Rogue Plate. Drawn to get a lovely run just behind the speed and if the runs present for her in the closing stages her devastating sprint could see finish top three.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on BetfairBACK – WIN – Mahuta – If he reaches $6+ on the Exchange – 2 units to win.

Back on BetfairBACK – EACH/WAY – Most Important – 1 units to win/2 units to place

Back on BetfairBACK – WIN – I’m Belucci – 1 unit to win

 

 

R8 Jeep Magic Millions Classic 1200m 

Speed Map

magic millions classic

 

Race Profile

  • Fillies have filled 13 of the 15 placings from the past 5 years
  • 4 of past 5 winners have drawn either barrier two or three
  • 2 of past 5 winners had previous run in BJ McLachlan Stakes
  • 3 of past 5 winners were trained in New South Wales

 

Previous Race Winners and Lead-Up Result

 

2015 – Good 3, Rail out 1m from 1400-1000m, out 1.5m from 1000-400m, true remainder

1st – Le Chef – SP$16 57kg BR3 – 4th up, 1 week, 1st 2Y0 handicap 1200m Gold Coast

2nd – Pepperano – SP$31 55kg BR12 – 3rd up, 2 weeks, 4th 2Y0 set weights 1050m Toowoomba

3rd – Single Gaze – SP$8.50 55kg BR6 – 3rd up, 3 weeks, 3rd Magic Millions 2YO 1100m Wyong

 

2014 – Good 3, Rail out 0.5m from 1000-400m, true remainder

1st – Unencumbered – SP$3.20 57kg BR3 – 6th up, 2 wks, 1st G3 BJ McLachlan 1200m Doom

2nd – Oakleigh Girl – SP$7 55kg BR6 – 4th up, 2 weeks, 4th G3 BJ McLachlan Stks 1200m Doom

3rd – Ruby Soho – SP$17 55kg BR2 – 5th up, 2 weeks, 1st 2Y0 maiden 1100m Ipswich

 

2013- Good 3, Rail out 0.5m

1st – Real Surreal – SP$5 55kg BR2 – 4th up, 1 week, 1st 2YO handicap 1000m Eagle Farm

2nd – Sweet Idea – SP$9 55kg BR10 – 4th up, 2 wks, 2nd G3 BJ McLachlan Stks 1200m Doomben

3rd – Missy Longstocking – SP$4.60 55kg BR3 – 5th up, 2 wks 1st G3 BJ McLachlan 1200m Doom

 

2012 – Good 3, Rail out 0.5m from 1000m-400m, true remainder

1st Driefontein – SP$3.40 55kg BR2 – 3rd up, 2 weeks, 1st G3 BJ McLachlan 1200m Doomben

2nd – No Looking Back – SP$9 55kg BR 3 – 2nd up, 8 weeks, 1st 2Y0 fillies hcp 1000m W Farm

3rd – Alezan Thunder – SP$11 55kg BR7 – 4th up, 2 weeks, 1st 2Y0 fillies SW 900m Sandown

 

2011 – Heavy 8, Rail out 1.5m from 1000m-400m, out 0.5m remainder

1st Karuta Queen – SP$3.50 54kg BR7 – 4th up, 5 weeks, 1st Magic Millions 2Y0 1000m Wyong

2nd – Combat Kitty – SP$14 54kg BR14 – 3rd up, 1 week, 3rd 2Y0 handicap 1200m Randwick

3rd – Schiffer – SP$5.50 54kg BR9 – 3rd up, 2 weeks, 1st 2Y0 handicap 1200m Randwick

 

Major Players

  1. Capitalist Brilliant in two career starts, winning the 1000m Listed Breeders Plate on debut and then the 1100m Magic Millions lead up at Wyong. It hasn’t been all smooth sailing with Team Snowden electing to miss a barrier trial in Sydney recently and instead having a track gallop between races. The stable insist all is well with the boom colt and if that’s the case, he is clearly the one to beat if he can be as dominant rising to 1200m.
  1. Dieters – Undefeated colt winning the least fashionable of the 2YO lead up events. His sectional data has been OK and is a horse that can be used multiple times in a race. Has the benefit of Daniel Griffen who rides this track as good as anyone. Looks over priced at $20 in early markets.
  1. Nikitas Run off his legs in the early stages of the 1200m BJ McLachlan last start but powered through the line late. Love the fact that both wins have been over 1200m and he’s most suited to what should be a frantic early speed. Looks very raw and if he can obtain a trouble free passage he has the right jockey, trainer and barrier to win here. Expecting him to shorten from $11 in early Markets.
  1. Niccolance Easily defeated by his high profile stablemate Capitalist last start at Wyong and finding it hard to see how he can turn the tables. While I think he will struggle to win, won’t be surprised if he finishes in the placings.
  1. Zelady’s Night Out Showed versatility in the Group 3 BJ McLachlan last start by easing out of the early speed battle and then proving strong at the end of 1200m. It was quite a soft win and one that deserves respect, given recent history proving the McLachlan as the premier form event for this race. Her big concern is the wide barrier as it is hard to see her finding a position closer to three off the fence.
  1. Candika Has come from well back in the field in two career wins and this racing style could come in to play given there should be an abundance of early speed in this race. Drawn to get a soft run and may surprise with a bold run late at big odds.
  1. Conchita – Looks the best roughie based on her debut win at Randwick running strong figures. Has had an injury setback and is still under a slight cloud but if she’s right wouldn’t shock at massive odds.
  1. Slumber Party Encouraging performance on speed behind Zelady’s Night Out last start but likely to find it very difficult from the awkward barrier. If McEvoy goes forward he will use too much petrol and she doesn’t appear to have enough class just yet to round up rivals from the rear.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – WIN – Capitalist – 15 units to win at >$2

Back on Betfair BACK – WIN – Nikitas – 2 units to win

Back on Betfair BACK – WIN – Dieters – 1 unit to win

 

R9 MYER Magic Millions Sprint 1100m

Speed Map

magic millions sprint

 

Race Profile

  • 0 of past 5 winners were last start winners
  • 1 of past 5 winners carried > 54.5kg
  • 2 of past 5 winners were SP favourite
  • 2 of past 5 winners were first-up

 

Previous Race Winners and Lead-Up Result

 

2015 – Good 3, Rail out 1m from 1400-1000m, out 1.5m from 1000-400m, true remainder

1st – Straturbo – SP$7 54kg BR11 – 3rd up, 3 weeks, 7th BM90 1100m Flemington

2nd – Happy Galaxy – SP$9 56kg BR12 – 2nd up, 2 wks, 9th Canterbury Classic 1200m Cant

3rd – Missy Longstocking – SP$2.80 54kg BR9 – 1st up, 52 wks, 11th M Millions Guin. 1400m G C

 

2014 – Good 3, Rail out 0.5m from 1000-400m, true remainder

1st – Whittington – SP$2.60 54kg BR6 – 1st up, 3 weeks, 1st barrier trial 734m Randwick

2nd – Emmalene – SP$6 54kg BR1 – 1st up, 3 weeks, 4th barrier trial 1050m Toowoomba

3rd – Steel Zip – SP$18 56.5kg BR5 – 5th up, 3 wks, 12th Listed Lough Neagh Stks 1350m Doom

 

2013 – Good 3, Rail out 0.5m

1st – Shamrock Slipper – SP$31 54kg BR3 – 2nd up, 3 weeks, 2nd class four 1000m Eagle Farm

2nd – Bella Rossie – SP$5.50 54kg BR2 – 2nd up, 2 weeks, 1st F&M NMW 900m Newcastle

3rd – Rocket To Glory – SP$7 54kg BR6 – 7th up, 2 weeks, 3rd CG&E 1MW 1100m Doomben

 

2012 – Good 3, Rail out 0.5m from 1000m-400m, true remainder

1st – Schiffer – SP$14 54.5kg BR2 – 1st up, 17 weeks, 6th F&M 1MW 1200m Warwick Farm

2nd – Seek And Find – SP$2.90 54.5kg BR3 – 2nd up, 1 week, 2nd handicap 900m Gold Coast

3rd – Nuptse – SP$7 54.5kg BR7 – 7th up, 2 weeks, 1st BM85 handicap 1020m Doomben

 

2011 – Heavy 8, Rail out 1.5m from 1000m-400m, out 0.5m remainder

1st – Temple Of Boom – SP$2.10 57kg BR10 – 5th up, 4 weeks, 3rd open handicap 1100m Doom

2nd – Huckleberry Dane – SP$26 53kg BR7 – 2nd up 2 weeks, 4th class five 1000m Eagle Farm

3rd – Atomic Force – SP$4.40 53kg BR3 – 3rd up, 2 weeks, 3rd BM85 1000m Randwick

 

Major Players

  1. Didntcostalot Recorded four wins and two placings from six starts since joining Tony Gollan’s stable. Freshened following dominant win in the 1200m Group 3 George Moore Stakes but now penalised by having to carry 57kg. His racing pattern will see him posted early but if the pressure isn’t too great, he can certainly continue winning.
  1. Wild Rain Victorian mare who won the Listed 1000m Dandenong Stakes at Sandown last start, defeating Office Bearer and Tried And Tired. Suited here on the minimum weight of 54kg and likely to be afforded a lovely position just behind lead on the fence from barrier two.
  1. Straturbo Won this race last year and tuned up for this event with stylish barrier trial win recently at Randwick. Wide gate not too much of a concern with the fence likely to be off by this stage of the day. Expect Brenton Avdulla to slot in three wide with cover just behind an expected strong speed. The track must firm to the good range if he is to be a chance as he doesn’t like any sting out of the track.
  1. Husson Eagle Sure to be beaten for speed in the early stages but will be the horse powering to the line with the strongest finish. Whether he can round up these speedsters over 1100m at the Gold Coast will depend on how quick the race is run in the first 600m. His last start effort at Randwick with 58.5kg was encouraging and a return to the minimum weight here of 54kg is a significant plus. In a race with plenty of chances I’m happy to oppose this runner at its short quote.
  1. King’s Troop Eligible for much easier races and not advantaged at the weight scale considering he meets Husson Eagle 4kg worse from when they met at Randwick. No doubt this is the race this regally bred colt has been set for so expect improvement from first-up run. He has finished a close second to subsequent Group 1 winner Japonisme on two occasions so he definitely has the class to turn things around.
  1. Le Cordon Bleu Should have finished closer to Start Wondering at Rosehill three weeks ago and is a horse that could surprise here if the early speed dents the chances of the leading horses. He is very lightly raced and has always given the indication he could compete at a higher level. This may be his big chance to land a significant prize.

 

Betting Strategy

Laying on Betfair LAY – WIN – Husson Eagle – lay to lose 10 units

Back on Betfair BACK – WIN – Le Cordon Bleu – 1 unit to win