The A-League Analyst: Week 26 Preview

Posted: April 1, 2016

Marcelo Carrusca

Sydney FC v Adelaide United

Saturday April 2, 7:30pm

Match Odds

 

Match Overview

Sydney are all but out of the Semi Final race after a brave but ultimately fruitless visit to Brisbane losing 3-2. Adelaide meanwhile eased to a 4-2 win over the Central Coast to remain a chance of taking out the Premiers Plate.

Key Statistics

  • Sydney are without a win in their last 10 matches, drawing four and losing six.
  • They have won just four home matches all season and lost three of their last four at Allianz Stadium.
  • Sydney have faced an average of 4.7 shots on goal in their last six games, ranking seventh in the league.
  • Sydney have average just 3.3 shots per match on goal in their last six and managed just seven goals, albeit two in each of their last two matches.
  • Adelaide have one lost one of their last 17 matches.
  • Adelaide have the highest points per game away from home in the league at 1.5ppg
  • Adelaide have kept a league high 11 clean sheets, including four of their last six.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – Adelaide at 2.1+ for 2 units.

Sydney have suffered late sucker punches in each of the last two weeks to throw away their season. There is every chance their very slim top-six chances will be gone by kick off if Melbourne Victory pick up something from their match in Wellington. They know they are gone anyway and I anticipate some players will be rested before a trip to Korea midweek.

 

 

Aaron Mooy

Perth Glory v Melbourne City

Sunday April 3, 7:00pm

Match Odds

 

Match Overview

Blockbuster match featuring the two of the form teams of the competition. Melbourne City are top the table and have the Premiers Plate in their own hands. Perth are still nipping at the heels of the top-four desperately hoping for a slip up above to host their first finals match in four years.

Key Statistics

  • Perth have won nine of their last 10 matches with their only loss coming at Western Sydney
  • Perth have faced 1.5 shots per match in their last six against a season average of 3.92 however
  • Perth have conceded a remarkable seven goals in their last 6 matches and are ranked tenth (last 6) and eighth (season) in goals concede per shot faced.
  • Perth have averaged six shots on target per match in the last six and five in the season ranked second and third
  • Perth have converted their shots on goal at 30% (L6) and 26% (season). Their season average is ranked tenth but only a small way off the league average of 30%.
  • City have won five of their last six. Their loss coming at Wellington, they also have a loss away to Newcastle in their last 10.
  • City have kept three clean sheets in their last four after only keeping one in their first 21.
  • City have ranked first for shots on target in the season at 5.84 per match and have remarkably increased that to 6.8 in their last six.
  • City have converted 37% of their shots on target, again the number one ranking.

 

Betting Strategy

Laying on Betfair LAY – Perth up to 2.6 for a risk of 2 units

Whilst there is very little in this match City’s recent change to a 4-4-2 and the inclusion of Osama Malik or Jacob Melling sitting in behind Aaron Mooy has solidified their once leaky defence. There is not a great deal separating these teams though I think City are just a shade better. The market place has Perth far too dominant.