Adelaide v Western Sydney Wanderers
Friday October 16, 7:40pm
Adelaide United will be strengthened for their Round 2 match against Western Sydney Wanderers by the return of left back Tarek Elrich, however the loss of goalkeeper Eugene Galekovic for an extended period is of concern. They were more than acceptable in a full blooded round 1 encounter with the Victory and will welcome the return to a Hindmarsh Stadium pitch that will suit them far more than the Adelaide Oval last week.
The Wanderers meanwhile were rather poor in their first round loss to Brisbane. The 3 goals conceded in the first half, including 2 from corners was area for real concern. Even more concerning for coach Tony Popovic is the fact that his 3 new overseas recruits all look average at best. It was noted that they were still trying to get up to speed physically but I have my fears for their season, yes a big call after round 1.
Adelaide have been consistently strong at home in the last 3 season winning 55% of their Hindmarsh stadium outings. The Wanderers on the other hand have lost 16 of their past 27 (59%) away matches. It must be said that in their inaugural season they had the best winning away record at 77% so one could argue that their overall history suggests quite random results, but I certainly like to lean on the most recent results when trying to predict the future. Further they have now won 1 and lost 5 matches in the first 3 rounds of their 3 seasons combined.
On these and other key factors I would suggest Adelaide be considered around 1.65 chances. The fact that the Wanderers best results have coincided with strong import performances plus having one eye on the big Sydney derby next week. I think Adelaide can be backed confidently at around 1.80 for 1 unit, originally I would have called for a 2 unit bet but with Galekovic out I am tempering my investment.
Perth Glory v Wellington Phoenix
Sunday, 18 October 7:00pm
Perth Glory and Wellington Phoenix round off Week 2 on Sunday night with both sides looking to bounce back from disappointing opening week defeats.
Perth have had undergone a large change in personnel following their salary cap breaches last season which prevented them a spot in the finals and are going to take some time to find their feet. However one constant is Coach Kenny Lowe which provides us one very strong statistical guide to the match.
Since commencing his tenure back in December 2013 after Alistair Edwards’ inglorious dismissal, he has been in charge for 22 matches at home with 17 of those resulting in over 2.5 goals including 13 of 14 last season.
Wellington returned their first positive away record last season in their eight-year existence, thanks in most part to conceding their record lowest number of goals on their travels. However even then 9 of their 13 matches resulted in over 2.5 goals.
Interestingly enough both teams tended to score heavily in the second half of matches last season, Perth 19 of their 29 home goals and Wellington 15 of their 21 away goals and had similar overall stats (i.e. overall including their home matches).