The A-League Analyst Season 2016/17 – Week 7

Posted: November 18, 2016

a-league analyst

Western Sydney Wanderers v Melbourne City

Friday November 18, 7:50pm

Match Odds

 

Match Overview

Western Sydney continued their disastrous defensive displays by handing Victory the initiative last week with calamitous defending leading to the Victory’s first goal. The home side then seized the initiative to score a comfortable 3-0 win. Western Sydney have looked good in midfield but their finishing (see statistics) and defensive ineptness has cost them many points. Brendan Santalab misses this match which will see the return up front of Kerem Bulut, seeking his first goal of the season.

Melbourne City bounced back from their loss to Brisbane with a comfortable 2-1 win over Newcastle. They missed Luke Brattan last week but that player returns from international duty to provide extra bight and creativity in the holding midfield role.

Key Statistics

  • The Wanderers average 12 total shots per match, 4.33 shots on target (Ranked 4th/League avg 4.1) and a conversion rate of 13% (R7/avg 17%)
  • The Wanderers have faced 5.2 shots per match (R8/avg 4.1). Last season they faced 3.4 shots per match
  • The Wanderers have yet to win at Homebush
  • City have averaged 12 total shots per match, 4.7 on target (R3/avg 4.1) and a conversion rate of 20% (R4/avg 17%)
  • City have faced just 2.83 shots per match (R3/avg 4.1) a distinct improvement on last season when they faced 5.4 shots per match

Betting Strategy

I now make it seven of their 13 goals Western Sydney have conceded coming directly from their own errors. Last week I used that as a positive against a Victory team assuming that the pain would stop at some point but it only got worse and now they face a team with much more firepower.

Back on Betfair BACK – Melbourne City to win at 2.3+ for 1.5 units

 

Perth Glory v Adelaide United

Friday November 18, 10:00pm

Match Odds

 

Match Overview

Despite a few clear-cut chances Perth were poor against a rampant Sydney last week. The match was reasonably even before fill in right back Dino Djulbic had a shocker handing Sydney the lead. Thankfully Josh Risdon returns at right back and with Mills settled into the left back and Shane Lowry fit again the Glory are at full strength.

Adelaide have been steadily improving with Sergi Guardiola scoring in each of the last three matches. They are still missing key players Henrique and Sergio Cirio but looked far better with the return of key midfielder Marcelo Carrusco last week.

Key Statistics

  • Perth average 11 total shots per match, 14 per match at home. they average 5.17 on target (Ranked 2/League avg 4.1) and have a conversion rate of 22% (R3/Avg 17).
  • Perth have faced 5.33 shots per match (R9/avg 4.1)
  • In the last 30 Perth home matches there have been 25 over 2.5 goals. 17 of 30 have had over 3.5 goals
  • Adelaide have averaged 11 shots per match but only 9 in away matches. On target attempts have totalled 3.7 per match (R8/avg 4.1) but just 2.5 away from home and have a conversion rate of 11% (R8/avg 17%)
  • Adelaide have faced on average 3.8 shots per match (R4/avg 4.1)
  • In their last 16 away matches (under manager Amor) there has been nine games finish over 2.5 goals and 6 over 3.5

Betting Strategy

It took Adelaide 9 matches to chalk up their first win last season and they have similar underlying stats this season.

Back on Betfair BACK – Perth to win at 1.9+ for 1 unit

Back on Betfair BACK – Over 2.5 goals at 1.5+ for 2 units

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