The A-League Analyst Season 2016/17 – Week 4

a-league analyst

Melbourne City v Adelaide United

Friday October 28, 7:50pm AEDT

Match Odds

 

Match Overview

Melbourne City back up for their third match in seven days after a loss to Perth 2-3 and a win over Victory 2-0 to qualify for the FFA Cup final. That midweek fixture was a tough match and whilst most of these players are well versed in backing up, it may leave some of their players a little flat. As expected they have started the season well in attack and have put the Victory to the sword twice to claim early bragging rights but their defence still needs plenty of work.

Adelaide have once again started the season slowly and not dis-similarly to last season, it took them eight weeks to get going then and I suggest that may happen a little earlier this season. The concern this season to last is they have several players out injured so early in the season. However, an ounce of luck last week and they would have beaten the Victory.

Key Statistics

  • City have lost just five games at home (played 26) however two of those were against Adelaide
  • City’s last 14 home matches have average 3.9 goals. At 2.5 goals there has been 14 overs and at 3.5 goals there has been 10 overs.
  • Adelaide won seven of their 14 away matches last season and are undefeated in 9 (7W 2D)
  • Adelaide’s last 14 away matches have averaged 2.7 goals. At 2.5 goals there has been eight overs and at 3.5 goals there has been six overs

Betting Strategy

City are susceptible here. They’re likely to rest a couple of players and Adelaide will be smarting off a couple of very unlucky home defeats.

Laying on Betfair LAY – Melbourne City up to 2.1 for a risk of 2 units

Back on Betfair BACK – Over 3.5 goals at 2.2+ for 1 unit

 

Brisbane Roar v Perth Glory

Sunday October 30, 5:00pm AEDT

Match Odds

 

Match Overview

Brisbane have started the season poorly pinching a point at home to the Victory with the last kick of the match, being hammered 0-4 by Newcastle Jets and beating cellar dwellers the Central Coast Mariners 1-0. They were reasonably comfortable last week but that is no badge of honour against CCM. They are missing Corona severely.

Perth Glory should be sitting on 3 wins from 3 except for 5 minutes of madness in round 1. They eased past Wellington before being ultra-impressive in the win over City last week. Just for good measure they have a fully fit squad this week.

Key Statistics

  • Brisbane have won 10 of their 14 home matches since the start of last season. But kept just four clean sheets.
  • Brisbane have averaged 3.7 shots on target this season (5.22 last season)
  • Brisbane have scored two goals in three games (0.66 per game) against last season where they averaged scoring 1.5 goals per game
  • Brisbane’s last 14 home matches have seen 11 over 2.5 goals and seven over 3.5 goals
  • Perth’s last 28 away matches have resulted in W12 D7 L9. However, they had five consecutive losses to start last season when they had an immense injury crisis.
  • Perth have averaged 7.7 shots on target this season. Last season they averaged 5.4 per match
  • Perth’s last 15 away matches have resulted in 10 over 2.5

Betting Strategy

Perth look a fantastic outfit this season. Neither team have many draws combined 12 in their last 60 matches.

Back on Betfair BACK –  Perth at 2.5+ for 3 units

 

Related Articles