A-League Week 20, Season 2016/17

Posted: February 16, 2017

a-league analyst

Adelaide United v Newcastle Jets

Friday February 17, 7:50pm

Match Odds

 

Match Overview

Adelaide hit rock bottom last week losing 0-5 at home to Perth. The comical own goal by Iacopa La Rocca to open the scoring for Perth summed up their season in one moment. It is hard to see where the positives are for Adelaide and the Wooden Spoon is now destined for last season’s Premiers Plate and Championship winners. Importantly Isais is available however with their first ACL match just four days after this match it would not surprise me to see a few of their misfiring stars given the night off in the hope to freshen them up, although perhaps they would just want to get out there again and try to turn it all round.

Newcastle dominated Victory on Monday night only for some timidity in the final third resulting in the goalless stalemate. They have a short turn-around here with just the four days between matches. Their results have been mixed but there is no doubt their football is improving all the time.

Key Statistics

 Stats per match (rank)AdelaideNewcastleLge Avg
DefensiveGoals Conceded1.9 (10)1.7 (7)1.5
Shots Faced4.8 (6)4.8 (6)4.6
Clean Sheets (total)3 (5)2 (6)4
GC per SF0.41 (10)0.35 (7)0.32
OffensiveGF0.8 (10)1.4 (5)1.5
Shots On*3.5 (9)4.4 (5)4.3
S/On Conversion % *0.2 (10)0.27 (6)0.29

*Excl Penalties/Own Goals

Statistics Comment

The Jets shots faced count in the last 10 matches, four per match, is ranked second in the league.

 

Betting Strategy

I find it profitable to bet against teams devoid of confidence.

Back on Betfair BACK – Newcastle to win at 2.2+ for 3 units

 

Western Sydney Wanderers v Sydney FC

Saturday February 18, 7:50pm

Match Odds

 

Match Overview

After some encouraging results Western Sydney once again lost at Spotless Stadium taking their combined record at Homebush (including ANZ) to Played 8 Won 0 Drawn 5 Lost 3. Perplexingly Coach Tony Popovic benched Brendon Santalab for the 0-2 loss to Central Coast despite the striker netting a double the previous week. The tactic completely backfired with plenty of deft touches and pretty play resulting in no final output. In a further blow Captain Dimas misses this match through suspension.

Sydney just kept on doing their thing crushing Wellington 3-1 at home in a contest that was basically over after Rhyan Grant’s third minute strike. Sydney are easily the best team in the competition and with the best player Milos Ninkovic. They are untouchable for the Premier’s Plate and short favourites to take out the double.

Key Statistics

 Stats per match (rank)WanderersSydneyLge Avg
DefensiveGoals Conceded1.5 (5)0.5 (1)1.5
Shots Faced3.9 (3)3.3 (1)4.6
Clean Sheets (total)2 (6)11 (1)4
GC per SF0.39 (9)0.15 (1)0.32
OffensiveGF1.2 (7)2.2 (1)1.5
Shots On*4.5 (4)5.6 (1)4.3
S/On Conversion % *0.22 (8)0.36 (1)0.29

*Excl Penalties/Own Goals

Statistics Comment

Very hard to pick holes in a team that is ranked first in every key statistic and is undefeated in 19 matches.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – Sydney at 1.75+ for 3 units.

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