The A-League Analyst Season 2016/17: Round 9

a-league analyst

Melbourne Victory v Perth Glory

Friday December 2, 7:50pm

Match Odds

 

Match Overview

Melbourne Victory were never out of second gear against Newcastle last week albeit took them some time to get into their rhythm after the week off prior, still they were good enough to record a comfortable 2-0 win. The big query surrounding this match is the status of Victory keeper Lawrence Thomas although he is expected to play.

Perth Glory on the other hand have serious personnel issues with Diego Costa, Josh Risdon and Rhys Williams all missing from the squad. They were shockingly poor against the Mariners and whilst accepting the injury pre-match to Risdon and early in the match to Costa hurt they just didn’t aim up. It was a similar story in their previous away match at Sydney FC.

Key Statistics

 Stats per match (rank)VictoryPerthLeague Avg
DefensiveGoals Conceded1.3 (4)2 (10)1.4
Shots Faced4.1 (5)4.6 (8)4.2
Clean Sheets (total)2 (2)1 (5)1
GC per SF0.32 (4)0.43 (9)0.33
OffensiveGF2.3 (1)1.9 (3)1.4
Shots On (excl Pen/OG)4.1 (6)4.9 (2)4.1
S/On Converstion %0.56 (1)0.39 (4)0.34
Passes per Goal184 (6)193 (9)327

Betting Strategy

Keen to back the Victory here but will wait to ensure that Thomas Lawrence plays. If he doesn’t the price will get out. If he does play they will be that much harder to beat.

Back on Betfair BACK – Victory/Victory half full double at 1.9+ for 1.5 units (if Lawrence plays)

Back on Betfair BACK – Victory at 1.8+ to win for 1.5 units (if Lawrence is ruled out and price drifts)

Back on Betfair BACK – Over 3.5 goals at 2.2+ for 1 unit

 

 

Newcastle Jets v Sydney FC

Sunday December 4, 5:00pm AEDT

Match Odds

 

Match Overview

Newcastle are still struggling on the injury front and whilst they were brave going down to Victory last week the second goal in particularly displayed the difference between seasoned A-League players and those not quite at the level.

Sydney FC were poor against Adelaide however they still looked very solid in defence. They have to back up after the FFA Cup final loss to City and Michael Zullo did look to be injured in the last few minutes which is of some concern, although they would likely slot David Carney straight into left back if he doesn’t play.

The history of backing up out of Cup finals is too limited to be studied however they have a large squad that shouldn’t suffer any let down. I’m starting to question Bobo leading the line for Sydney so perhaps it is time for Bernie Ibini to get a run out (assuming he is fit enough).

Key Statistics

 Stats per match (rank)NewcestleSydneyLeague Avg
DefensiveGoals Conceded1.5 (5)0.4 (1)1.4
Shots Faced5.2 (9)2.6 (1)4.2
Clean Sheets (total)1 (5)5 (1)1
GC per SF0.29 (3)0.15 (1)0.33
OffensiveGF1.1 (5)2.3 (2)1.4
Shots On (excl Pen/OG)3.1 (8)5 (1)4.1
S/On Converstion %0.35 (5)0.46 (2)0.34
Passes per Goal337165327

Further Statistics

  • Head to head in the last three seasons Sydney have won 8 and there has been 1 draw. Sydney have scored 15 to Newcastle three.
  • In the last four head-to-head matches back to the start of 2015/16 Newcastle have had 20 total shots and two on target. Sydney have had 52 total shots and 17 on target scoring six goals to nil.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – Under 2.5 goals at 2.0+ for 2 units

Back on Betfair BACK – Sydney to win at 1.8+ for 1 unit

 

Related Articles