The A-League Analyst Season 2016/17: Round 15

a-league analystMelbourne Victory v Brisbane Roar

Friday January 13, 7:50pm AEDT

Match Odds

 

Match Overview

Melbourne Victory were a max bet last week and got the job done winning 2-0 at Adelaide. They didn’t have it their own way but once again were at their clinical best scoring from 2 of their 4 shots on target. They lose Alan Baro who has started 13 of 14 matches this season. It is a concern however Nick Ansell is a very capable replacement.

Brisbane were poor against Newcastle losing 3-2 at home. Brett Holman will return in the next couple of weeks and they will appreciate having him back.

Last year these teams met 3 times for a 0-0 draw, a Brisbane win of 5-0 and a Victory win of 4-0. This season was a tame 1-1 draw so really anything is to be expected.

Key Statistics

 Stats per match (rank)VictoryBrisbaneLge Avg
DefensiveGoals Conceded1.1 (2)1.2 (3)1.5
Shots Faced4.2 (5)4.1 (4)4.6
Clean Sheets (total)4 (2)3 (4)2.7
GC per SF0.25 (2)0.3 (3)0.32
OffensiveGF2.5 (1)1.3 (6)1.5
Shots On (excl Pen/OG)4.6 (4)4.3 (6)4.3
S/On Converstion %0.47 (1)0.25 (7)0.3
Passes per Goal171200316

Statistics Comment

Two reasonably well matched teams apart from the Victory conversion rate. At some point it could be expected to revert closer to the mean however as I said last week they are just creating such gilt-edged chances that may be a while in coming.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – Melbourne Victory at 1.7+ for 1.5 units

Back on Betfair BACK – Over 2.5 goals at 1.55+ for 1.5 units

 

Sydney FC v Western Sydney Wanderers

Saturday January 14, 7:50pm AEDT

Match Odds

 

Match Overview

Sydney overcame the early injury of Sebastian Ryall from the centre of their defence to setup a 2-0 lead over Central Coast. The Coast came roaring back into the game to make it 2-2 before Sydney showed their class by getting a third just a few minutes later (it was offside but they all count!). With Ryall now out and Josh Brillante injured the makeup of their team which was once so solid looks rather less so. Brandon O’Neill will likely continue as a central defender and it is hard to guess who will partner Milos Dimitrijevic in defensive midfield which is a concern

Western Sydney lost 0-1 at City last week in a match that saw Aritz Borda sent-off after just 30 minutes. They did well to hold it to a 0-1 result and had a few chances but once again their lack of firepower in the final third hurt them. Borda has started 13 of 14 matches and will likely be deputised by Robbie Cornthwaite, a solid replacement but still a worry.

Key Statistics

 Stats per match (rank)SydneyWanderersLge Avg
DefensiveGoals Conceded0.5 (1)1.7 (6)1.5
Shots Faced3 (1)3.9 (2)4.6
Clean Sheets (total)8 (1)0 (10)2.7
GC per SF0.17 (1)0.44 (10)0.32
OffensiveGF2.4 (2)1.2 (7)1.5
Shots On (excl Pen/OG)5.5 (1)4.5 (5)4.3
S/On Converstion %0.4 (2)0.21 (8)0.3
Passes per Goal155378316

Statistic Comment 

Other than the low number of shots faced the Wanderers are struggling in all key markers. They will get a few more results at some stage but the “due for” system is not a profitable system.

In the last eight derbies Sydney have won six and there has been two draws.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – Sydney FC at 1.6+ for 2 units

Back on Betfair BACK – Over 2.5 goals at 1.6+ for 2 units

 

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