The A-League Analyst Season 2016/17: Round 14

a-league analyst

Melbourne City v Western Sydney Wanderers

Friday January 6, 7:50pm AEDT

 

Match Overview

Melbourne City are win-less in their last five and the pressure is mounting. Despite scoring a total of 22 goals they have been heavily assisted by five penalties, that isn’t to say to say they were not deserved but when the league average last season was 4.2 per team they have certainly had more than their quota. They are still hitting the target regularly but haven’t looked dynamic in front of goal. they also have a league low of 58% of their shots from in the box which suggests they are having trouble with that final penetrating pass.

Despite not keeping a clean sheet so far this season, the Wanderers biggest issues of late are at the other end of the park with an abysmal rate of creation and finishing. They have been able to dominate matches for large periods but not find that elusive final ball or finishing touch. The arrival of Terry Antonis will bolster their attack although he is unlikely to play a big part in this match. Surely a big-name Striker is on the cards in the transfer window.

Key Statistics 

 Stats per match (rank)CityWSWLge Avg
DefensiveGoals Conceded1.4 (4)1.8 (7)1.5
Shots Faced4 (4)3.8 (3)4.5
Clean Sheets (total)1 (6)0 (10)2.5
GC per SF0.35 (7)0.46 (10)0.32
OffensiveGF1.7 (3)1.3 (5)1.5
Shots On (excl Pen/OG)4.1 (8)4.7 (3)4.3
S/On Converstion %0.32 (4)0.21 (8)0.3
Passes per Goal262200316

Statistics Comment 

Two teams who are evenly matched. City have failed to win nine of their last 21 home matches and Western Sydney have only lost five of their last 20 away matches.

 

Betting Strategy

Laying on Betfair LAY – Melbourne City at 2.1 or less for a risk of 2 units

 

Adelaide United v Melbourne Victory

Saturday January 7, 7:50pm AEDT

 

Match Overview

Adelaide went to Wellington last week and picked up a point which left them still looking for only their second win this season. They didn’t manage a shot on target whilst facing nine and thanked goal keeper Eugene Galekovic for keeping a clean sheet. Sergi Guardiola went off injured and is in doubt for this match but to be fair that may not be a terrible thing as they will be forced to try plan B.

Victory were locked in an even battle with the Jets before a very fortunate penalty set them on their way to a 4-2 win. They have found their form after some early season struggles. They have a fully fit squad and look to be building to a run at the leaders Sydney FC.

Key Statistics

 Stats per match (rank)AdelaideVictoryLge Avg
DefensiveGoals Conceded1.8 (7)1.2 (3)1.5
Shots Faced4.5 (6)4.2 (5)4.5
Clean Sheets (total)3 (4)3 (3)2.5
GC per SF0.39 (9)0.28 (2)0.32
OffensiveGF0.8 (10)2.5 (1)1.5
Shots On (excl Pen/OG)3 (10)4.7 (4)4.3
S/On Converstion %0.2 (9)0.54 (1)0.3
Passes per Goal549170316

Statistics Comment

Victory are clearly above Adelaide on statistics. Of interest is their shots on conversion rate (54%) which is hard to maintain but in this instance, displays the quality of the chances they are creating.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Victory at 1.8+ for 3 units

 

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