The A-League Analyst Season 2016/17: Round 13

Posted: December 29, 2016 at 3:32 pm

a-league analyst

Wellington Phoenix v Adelaide United

Sunday January 1, 5:35pm AEDT

 

Match Overview

Wellington battled well in hot conditions at Newcastle last week. Leading twice only to be pulled back twice by Newcastle. Both teams had plenty of chances in an open match but Wellington are certainly on the improve.

Adelaide are bereft of confidence. When they seem to be getting a foothold in matches they miss sitters, make poor defensive errors or both. As I keep suggesting they need to find a goal scorer. Their title defence is over and it seems only a matter of time before the ACL becomes the focus.

Key Statistics

 Stats per match (rank)WellingtonAdelaideLge Avg
DefensiveGoals Conceded1.6 (6)1.9 (8)1.5
Shots Faced5 (7)4.2 (6)4.5
Clean Sheets (total)3 (2)2 (5)2.1
GC per SF0.33 (6)0.46 (10)0.32
OffensiveGF1.2 (8)0.8 (10)1.5
Shots On (excl Pen/OG)4.4 (5)3.2 (9)4.3
S/On Conversion %0.23 (8)0.2 (10)0.3
Passes per Goal312513310

Statistics Comment

Neither team is blessed with superb finishing skills however from Wellington’s perspective they are on the improve with Finkler, Barbarouses and Krishna getting towards their peak.

Betting Strategy

Wellington look to have enough in reserve to take care of Adelaide.

Back on Betfair BACK Wellington to win for 3 units at 2.0+

 

Western Sydney Wanderers v Perth Glory

Sunday January 1, 7:50pm AEDT

 

Match Overview

Western Sydney are going ok but once again they have proven themselves unable to finish off the chances they can create. They have now lost Brendan Santalab for three matches and let Kerem Bulut depart, leaving them with only young Lachlan Scott as a recognised striker.

I suspect he will start but at this stage of his career against a tough Perth central defence he will struggle. I think it would be interesting to see Mitch Nichols played as a false nine using his vision to bring other attacking players into the match in the final third.

Perth took part in that epic 3-3 draw v City where Keeper Joel Reddy at one end and forward Diego Castro at the other end of the field produced master classes in shot stopping and finishing respectively. Their defence is susceptible but surely now Marc Warren has played himself out of the team and surely Joe Mills gets a run this week. It will be interesting to see if the 3-man defence experiment continues.

Key Statistics

 Stats per match (rank)WanderersPerthLge Avg
DefensiveGoals Conceded1.8 (10)2.1 (5)1.5
Shots Faced4 (8)6 (7)4.5
Clean Sheets (total)0 (6)1 (2)2.1
GC per SF0.46 (9)0.36 (6)0.32
OffensiveGF1.3 (7)1.75 (8)1.5
Shots On (excl Pen/OG)4.8 (8)4.4 (3)4.3
S/On Conversion %0.21 (7)0.36 (9)0.3
Passes per Goal318337310

Statistics Comment

Evenly matched but Wanderers are still yet to win in six attempts at Homebush since their move from Parramatta.

Betting Strategy

Laying on Betfair LAY Western Sydney at 2.10 or less for a risk of 2 units

 

Sydney FC v Brisbane Roar

Friday December 30, 7:50pm AEDT

Match Overview

Keeping it simple, Sydney demolished Adelaide, they are flying and clearly the best team in the league.

Brisbane laboured to a 1-1 home draw v Western Sydney, though to be fair they were severely affected by a horrible pitch at Lang Park.

Key Statistics

 Stats per match (rank)SydneyBrisbaneLge Avg
DefensiveGoals Conceded0.4 (1)1 (2)1.5
Shots Faced2.6 (1)3.5 (2)4.5
Clean Sheets (total)7 (1)3 (4)2.1
GC per SF0.16 (1)0.28 (3)0.32
OffensiveGF2.4 (1)1.33 (9)1.5
Shots On (excl Pen/OG)5.2 (1)4.1 (8)4.3
S/On Conversion %0.36 (3)0.28 (5)0.3
Passes per Goal158337310

Statistics Comment

Brisbane rank just below Sydney defensively but in truth the gap between the teams is sizeable. Offensively Sydney are far stronger

Betting Strategy

Keep it simple.

Back on Betfair BACK Sydney to win at 1.5+ for 3 units

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