The A-League Analyst Season 2016/17: Round 11

a-league analyst

Newcastle Jets v Adelaide United

Friday December 16, 7:50pm AEDT

Match Odds

 

Match Overview

Newcastle overran Perth last week with the return of Andrew Nabbout and Daniel Mullen proving vital, what is more they can expect Nigel Boogaard back this week as well. In the first meeting of these two this season they played out an even 1-1 draw in Newcastle with the Jets shooting themselves in the foot conceding from a big defensive error.

Adelaide were a little unlucky to lose 4-0 to Brisbane in Brisbane but they were clearly second best and despite dominating field position and corners (19-3!) they didn’t look threatening. In an even season there is not too much between most teams ranked 5-10 so the fact they are last is not terrible but they need to improve and certainly would hope that Sergio Cirio starts this week. They do also get Isais back and as such are, like Newcastle back close enough to full strength.

Key Statistics 

 Stats per match (rank)NewcastleAdelaideLeague Avg
DefensiveGoals Conceded1.5 (5)1.7 (7)1.4
Shots Faced5.4 (8)3.9 (4)4.3
Clean Sheets (total)1 (6)2 (5)2.1
GC per SF0.28 (2)0.44 (9)0.31
OffensiveGF1.1 (6)0.9 (10)1.4
Shots On (excl Pen/OG)3.7 (7)3.3 (9)4
S/On Converstion %0.24 (7)0.21 (8)0.31
Passes per Goal347455323

Statistics Comment

Both struggle offensively although we may be able to excuse both given injury plagued seasons.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – Newcastle to win at 2.8+ for 1 units

Back on Betfair BACK – The draw at 3.5+ for 0.4 units

Back on Betfair BACK – Under 2.5 goals at 1.85+ for 1 unit

 

Melbourne City v Melbourne Victory

Saturday December 17, 7:50pm AEDT

Match Odds

 

Match Overview

Another full blooded up-tempo Melbourne Derby is in the offing and with conditions set to be perfect this looks set to be a Christmas Cracker! City have won both derbies played so far this season.

City were lucky to get away with a point from Sydney FC given they should have been 0-1 down but for a very lucky disallowed Sydney goal when Fernando Brandan gave them a lead with a fantastic finish, interestingly it was their only shot on goal. Of course, the Sydney Penalty should never have been but overall Sydney were by far the better side.

Victory found their mojo with Besart Berisha back to his clinical best netting a hat trick in their 3-0 win at Western Sydney. It was however a very open match with WSW having plenty of chances of their own.

Key Statistics

 Stats per match (rank)CityVictoryLeague Avg
DefensiveGoals Conceded1.1 (3)1.1 (4)1.4
Shots Faced3.6 (3)4 (5)4.2
Clean Sheets (total)1 (6)3 (2)1.8
GC per SF0.3 (5)0.28 (2)0.33
OffensiveGF1.6 (4)2.2 (1)1.4
Shots On (excl Pen/OG)3.7 (7)4 (5)4.1
S/On Converstion %0.35 (4)0.5 (1)0.33
Passes per Goal283194334

Statistics Comment

Comparatively to last season City have improved their defence whilst regressing closer to the mean in attack (last season was crazy numbers). This is not unusual given it is very difficult to produce at both ends, it also shows that they have yet to replace Aaron Mooy’s creativity. Still they are second on the table!

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – Over 2.5 goals at 1.6+ for 3 units (3 units being a max bet)

 

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