The A-League Analyst Season 2016-17: Week 1 Preview

Posted: October 7, 2016

a-league analyst

Western Sydney Wanderers v Sydney FC

Saturday October 8, 7:50pm AEDT

Match Odds

 

Match Overview

A new season begins with arguably the biggest match in A-League history with a crowd of 60,000+ expected at ANZ Stadium for the the seasons first edition of the Sydney Derby.

Both teams go into the season with high hopes. For Sydney FC top-6 is a minimum while the Wanderers will be after that first Grand Final victory after finishing runners up in three of their four seasons of existence.

Wanderers have made wholesale changes as is their norm whilst Sydney look to have improved in all key areas. A big question this season from a Wanderers point of view is can they transfer their cauldron like atmosphere from Parramatta to Homebush.

Key Statistics

  • WSW ranked equal second for goals conceded last season (33) and second for both clean sheets (9) and shots faced (92)
  • WSW ranked fifth on my adjusted shots on target (128) but second (32%) in conversion of those shots
  • WSW struggle early in the season having won just one of a cumulative 12 matches in Rounds 1-3 in their 4-year existence. This against a historical winning record of 48% rounds 4 to 27
  • Sydney ranked third for goals conceded last season (36), equal third for clean sheets (8) and first for shots faced (86)
  • Sydney ranked seventh for goals scored (36) and adjusted shots on target (106)
  • Sydney are undefeated in eight against the Wanderers and only four of their total 12 head to head matches have been over 2.5 goals

Betting Strategy

Laying on Betfair LAY – Western Sydney up to 2.8 for a risk of 2.5 units

Back on Betfair BACK – Under 2.5 at 1.85+ for 2 units

 

Andy Keogh

Perth Glory v Central Coast Mariners

Saturday October 8, 10:00pm AEDT

Match Odds

 

Match Overview

Perth Glory finished powerfully last season to make a run at the top-6 before running out of steam along with their most influential player Diego Costa and eventually going out in the elimination finals against Melbourne City.

Central Coast were a long last winning just three matches. They subsequently opened up this season with an FFA Cup loss to Victorian State League side Green Gully which saw the demise of coach Tony Walmsley, replaced with former Socceroo Paul Okon. The only way is up for the Mariners

Key Statistics

  • After a slow start to the season winning two of their opening 10 matches, Perth won 11 of 17 matches this coincided with some extra signings notably Andy Keogh and plenty of early injuries
  • After round 11 Perth ranked first for goals scored (40)
  • 23 of Perth’s last 27 home matches have been over 2.5 goals
  • CCM conceded 70 goals last season keeping zero clean sheets and facing 176 shots clearly the poorest returns in the league.
  • CCM Scored 33 goals (ranked 9th) at an adjusted rate of conversion of just 12%, better only than Newcastle.
  • CCM have won just one of their last 27 away matches losing 19 and 12 of their 13 away matches last season were over 2.5 goals

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – Over 2.5 goals at 1.5+ for 3 units

Back on Betfair BACK – Over 3.5 goals at 2.5+ for 1.5 units

 

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