Launceston, Wednesday 24th February 2016, The Betfair Insider

Posted: February 24, 2016

Current Track Rating: Soft 5

Rail: +3m 1200m to Winning Post – Remainder 2m

Weather Forecast: www.bom.gov.au

Wednesday 24th – 95% chance of rain 15-25mm. 15-20km/h

 

R7 Betfair Exchange Launceston Cup 2400m Group 3 HCP

Speed Map

launceston cup

Race Profile

  • 4 of past 5 winners have had their last start in the Hobart Cup
  • 3 of past 5 winners have been the SP favourite
  • 3 of past 5 winners have drawn wide barriers (9,12,9)

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

2015 Soft, Rail +5m

1st Genuine Lad – SP $3.40 54kg BR9 – 8th up, 2 weeks, 2nd G3 Hobart Cup 2400m Hobart

2nd Banca Mo – SP $3.3F 56.5kg BR7 – 5th up, 2 weeks, 3rd G3 Hobart Cup 2400m Hobart

3rd Geegees Blackflash – SP $6 60.5kg BR4 – 8th up, 2 weeks, 1st G3 Hobart Cup 2400m Hobart


2014 Good, Rail +3m

1st Epingle – SP $2F 56kg BR12 – 8th up, 2 weeks, 1st G3 Hobart Cup 2400m Hobart

2nd Gold To Go – SP $14 54kg BR7 – 9th up, 2 weeks, 1st 0-64 2400m Pakenham

3rd Geegees Blackflash – SP $5 60kg BR8 – 8th up, 2 weeks, 2nd G3 Hobart Cup 2400m Hobart


2013 Soft, Rail +3m

1st Geegees Blackflash – SP $8 59.5kg BR2 – 8th up, 2 weeks, 3rd G3 Hobart Cup 2400m Hobart

2nd Lucky Angel – SP $6 54kg BR13 – 17th up, 2 weeks, 4th G3 Hobart Cup 2400m Hobart

3rd Dream Pedlar – SP $30 55.5kg BR8 – 6th up, 2 weeks, 9th G3 Hobart Cup 2400m Hobart

 

2012 – 1st Prevailing – SP $10 54kg BR9 – 10th up, 2 weeks, 1st BM78 2100m Launceston

2011 – 1st Fast Future – SP $12 55.5kg BR1 – 3rd up, 10 days, 9th G3 Hobart Cup 2400m Hobart

 

Major Players 

1. Up Cups: The winner of the Hobart Cup, which is always the best lead up race to the Launceston Cup. In an action packed race Up Cups happened to have a relatively clear run and was able to pull away from the field recording his third successive win. Once again a good chance but needs luck again, this time from a wide barrier and up in weight.

2. Geegees Goldengirl: A really game performance in the Hobart Cup finishing second by half a length. On that occasion she was put into the race (wide) around the bend and fought on extremely well. She’s drawn much better than Up Cups today and meets him 2kg better for the run. Horse to beat.

4. Gladstone: He’s not coming through the Hobart Cup but is a really interesting runner. The Ex WA galloper commenced his Tasmanian career in December last year and wasn’t disgraced, beaten 3.8L by the highly talented Admiral. He jumped from 1400m-2115m last start and ran a great 2nd in Open grade. He’s been set for this race by connections and is a good chance at double figures.

6. Player One: Progressing beautifully through the staying races in Tasmania including a fast finishing 4th in the Hobart Cup. Anthony Darmanin was hard at work when things got ugly but the horse picked up eventually and ran home hard. Craig Newitt takes the ride today and gets the inside gate. He’ll be a touch closer this time around and has won six starts on slow rated tracks.

7. Schockemohle: A fast finishing 2nd to Golden Mane at Caulfield looks solid enough form for this race. The start prior he ran Wales to 1.2L at Moonee Valley and it’s important to note that Wales (who had little luck) started around the $4.80 mark in the Hobart Cup. It’s his first look at the 2400m which is the big concern for backers.

8. Smoke N Whisky: Although starting at bolters odds two starts back Smoke N Whisky was only beaten by 4L in the Hobart Cup. He then accepted at Launceston 9 days later and won an Open stayers race in good time. He’s on the 7 day back-up while the rest of his Hobart Cup combatants have waited 16 days between runs. That gives him a distinct advantage over those rivals.

9. Aggregator: Mick Kent’s stable has just hit some form and presents here off a BM70 2nd at Sandown. On face value he’ll need to lift but must be respected.

13. Arianne: Presents from the same race Aggregator comes through and started $3 on the day. She was unlucky on that occasion and could surprise here in what looks an open race.

 

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – WIN – Geegees Goldengirl – 3 units at $3.5+

Back on Betfair BACK – WIN – Gladstone – 1 units at $11+

Back on Betfair BACK – WIN – Player One – 2 units at $7+

The form of the Hobart Cup looks slightly questionable this year as the race was run with “start/stop” tactics not helping those trapped on the inside or at the rear of the field. For that reason I’m against the winner of the Hobart Cup, Up Cups who appeared to receive the clearest of runs.

 

** Speed Maps courtesy of www.racingandsports.com.au

 

Good Luck Backing & Laying.

The Betfair Insider

 

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