Ipswich, Saturday June 18th: The Betfair Insider – Ipswich Eye Liner

Posted: June 16, 2016 at 4:52 pm

Current Track Rating: Good 4

Rail: True

Weather Forecast: www.bom.gov.au

Friday 17th – Max 24°C. Partly cloudy 20% chain of a shower.

Saturday 18th – Max 24°C. Mostly Sunny day. 30% chance of a shower.

 

R7 Eye Liner Stakes Listed 1350m

Speed Map

Eye Linear Stakes

Race Profile

  • 5 of past 5 winners have carried 56kg or more
  • 3 of past 5 winners have drawn barrier 7 or less
  • 4 of past 5 winners have used 1300-1400m as lead up run
  • 4 of past 5 winners have been 2 weeks between runs
  • QTC Cup ‘looks’ the right profile race but this year it’s forcing horses to back up!

 

Previous Winners & Lead Up Result

Good 3, Rail True

1st – Smokin’ Joey – BR 7 59.5kg SP $5 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 8th G1 Stradbroke Handicap 1350m Doomben

2nd – Daph ‘n’ Alf – BR 5 54kg SP $9 – 2nd up, 3 weeks 1st WFA 20k Mackay 1100m Mackay

3rd – Ulmann – BR 6 54kg SP $4.80 – 6th up, 4wk freshen 2nd Sunshine Coast Guineas 1600m S Coast

Good 4, Rail True

1st – Alma’s Fury – BR 4 59kg SP $12 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 7th QTC Cup G2 1300m Eagle Farm

2nd – Masthead – BR 12 56.5kg $4.20 – 4th up, 2 weeks 2nd QTC Cup G2 1300m Eagle Farm

3rd – Playitstraight – BR 11 54kg $14 – 2nd up, 2 weeks 2nd BM90 50k 1350m Doomben

Soft 7, Rail True

1st – Conservatorium – BR 4 59kg SP $6 – 4th up, 2 weeks 2nd QTC Cup G2 1300m Eagle Farm

2nd – Meet George – BR 14 54kg SP $21 –  4th up, 2 weeks 3rd Spear Chief Listed 1500m Eagle Farm

3rd – Pellegrini – BR 15 54kg SP $17 – 6th up, 2 weeks 7th Strawberry Road 1600m Eagle Farm

Belltone – BR 7 56kg SP $3.2 – 3rd up, 2 weeks 2nd QTC Cup G2 1300m Eagle Farm

Adnocon – BR 12 56.5kg SP $10 – 1st up, 2 x RHIL Trials, 13 weeks 6th BM95 70k 1600m Randwick

Major Players 

1. Ninth Legion: Class runner who has been too bad to be true this preparation. He’s settled back on both occasions against his usual running pattern nearer to the lead. Damien Browne is a terrific judge of speed and likes to roll forward. In saying that it’s not the Damien Browne of old and he is struggling to find form of late. Ninth Legion maps to get every chance in running and will appreciate being back on top of the ground. Looks overpriced at double figure odds if the blinkers can switch him on like they usually do.

2. Steel Zip: Comes here first up off a nice trial but has never won at this track. He’s drawn an inside gate with Jeff Lloyd engaged who rides Ipswich. At his best he’s a knockout and will need a dream spilt to win here.

3. Saluter: Has been kept fresh for this and finds a Good rated track which is the key to him. He was a soft winner first up over 1000m at the Sunshine Coast and is perfectly placed at this distance looking at his form in December 2015 which includes a second placing to Fontelina in the Lough Neagh stakes over 1300m when beaten under two lengths. Expecting Brad Stewart to take a sit if Tegan Harrison pushes across hard on Beckham from 13 or else he can lead if the tempo isn’t strong. Fits the profile and presents as a great each/way bet with a heavier stake to place.

6. Timeless Prince: Another coming through the QTC Cup but did have a softer time of it compared to the other runners coming through that race. His chances would improve remarkably on a soft rated track, he needs plenty to go right as he’ll be back and wide in running.

7. Trubia: Progressive runner with a great strike rate that has drawn barrier one. Michael Cahill rides Ipswich well and his performance in the QTC Cup was a pass for a drop back to this grade. Like all runners coming through the QTC Cup last week there’s a big query on how they will back up after racing on the new Eagle Farm track. He’s a lay at the price in early betting ($2.60-$3.80) with the corporates and I expect him to touch $5.00 on the exchange making a straight lay in early markets or a Lay-To-Back proposition for the less risk-averse.

8. Time To Plunder: Horror draw but looks set up to win this race and that’s always big watch when a runner is trained by Liam Birchley. Meets Saluter 0.5kg worse off since they met at the Sunshine Coast first up but he was off a 295-day break and now meets that runner with another run under his belt. Hard to be confident from a map perspective but if there’s breakneck speed up front he can finish home strongest if the track is playing fairly.

 

Betting Strategy

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) Trubia – 10 units at $4.6 or less.

** Speed Maps courtesy of www.racingandsports.com.au

 

Good Luck Backing & Laying.

The Betfair Insider

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