Ipswich, Saturday 18th June 2016: Ratings 2 Win – Ipswich Cup Race Analysis

Posted: June 16, 2016 at 3:14 pm

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Feature Race Analysis

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R6 Ipswich Cup 2510m 

Track

With the prospect of some light further rain, the current Good 4 rating is probably the best it will get to. The rail in the true position suggests that the best going might be 3+ off in the straight.

Tempo & Speed Map

Interestingly, this race is normally run at a fast pace to the 600m with the average speed (last 6 editions) being +11 lengths above PAR (standard time for track, distance and class adjusted for track speed variables on the day). For Saturdays race, the R2W Early Speed Map below predicts an Average to Above Average tempo.

Ipswich Cup

Map Notes: With more than 300m to the first turn the runners should be able to find their preferred positions however John Allen will need to make a decision on Puccini with a wide trip being a genuine risk.

Race Overview

Early markets have the David Vandyke trained Maurus as a dominant favourite. Worthy Cause finished off ok and is on the quick back up but will be seeking success up in trip which could be a problem. Five other horses feature here off the quick back up which adds interest. Dance Of Heroes arrives here straight from Sydney and will be the sole representative for the Waller stable.

Runner Analysis

Ipswich Cup runners

Advantaged Horses

7. Dance Of Heroes: Maps well for Jeff Lloyd. Should get clear running in the straight and will get its chance if good enough.

 

Neutral Horses

2. Maurus: Coming off a 28-day break into a race with what could be a solid tempo which isn’t normally ideal but does get Damien Browne which is a significant plus.

3. Worthy Cause: Leads this race which is a plus. Up in distance which is a risk for mine but could easily run a cheeky race. Happy to work around on current prices.

5. Jumbo Prince: Up in distance now and has been competitive in all four runs in this distance range, gets back in the field which is a negative but with a solid tempo will get its chance to run on.

 

Disadvantaged Horses

4. Iggi Pop: From a ratings perspective would have to lift significantly to be winning this, at current odds represents no value and is one I’m happy to risk.

Betting Strategy

On current prices there looks to be two potential value bets in the race.

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Dance Of Heroes at $6.50+ (1 unit)

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Jumbo Prince at $9+ (0.5 units)

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