The Form Hound’s Group 1 Qualifiers Betting Strategy: The Meadows Saturday 27th February

Posted: February 26, 2016

Form Hound

 

Group 1 Qualifiers Betting Strategy

The Meadows: Saturday 27th February

 

Race 1 – Australian Cup Heat 1

#8 Midnight Ride 

Eight of this chaser’s 12 career wins have come from Boxes 6 to 8. He has come up with a favorable draw here and he should receive a nice cart into the race from White Bandit and Keune. He has proven he is strong to the line over this distance range and I believe this is not one of the stronger heats. I am pretty keen on a big start to the night with this fellow saluting the judge at nice odds.

#7 Keune 

She has been a superstar in Tasmania recording 16 wins. In her one Victorian start at Sandown Park she failed to flatter when finding trouble in Bitches only class. She meets some of the big players here and I just can’t see her being able to cross these rivals and find the lead from the wide draw. She has not raced at the track previously and I just cannot have her based on that.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – WIN – Midnight Ride >$6 for 4 units

Laying on Betfair LAY – WIN – Keune <$7 for 4 units 

 

 

Race 2 – Australian Cup Heat 2

#2 Pop The Cork 

It takes a dog with serious ability to run 29.66 over this trip in his first look at the track in July last year. Since permanently arriving in the Jason Thompson kennel in January he has won three of his five starts at Sandown Park, Warragul and Ballarat. all in blistering time. He looks well drawn here with Lithgow Panther and Emrys unlikely to trouble him early. He should find a nice spot along the rails and I am hoping he can lead all the way.

#1 Lithgow Panther 

I am not too concerned by him dropping back in distance here. Legendary trainer Robbie Britton will have him wound up to the minute and he has a staggering record from Box 1 including seven wins and two placings from 11 starts. If he can hold his line to the first turn he should be able to go through his gears and finish powerfully into the placings.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – WIN – Pop The Cork >$2 for 4 units

Back on Betfair BACK – PLACE – Lithgow Panther >$1.60 for 2 units

 

Race 3 – Stayers Cup Heat 1

#5 Chrichton Bale 

He kept hitting the line in a recent run over 715m at Sandown Park and has never finished worse than second in two starts over this trip. He has recently changed kennels and is now with the astute Fisher camp. He is worth another chance in a race where the likely leaders Star Recall, Tron Bradman and Minnesota Nice could be stopping to a walk late.

#8 Dewana Babe 

Even though she is nearing 4 years old, she hasn’t had much luck in recent starts and has still been racing with great heart. She caught the eye at Sandown Park recently when placed in handy time and her best form has come from wide draws. She should be huge odds here and is capable of running into a placing.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – WIN – Chrichton Bale >$8 for 1 unit

Back on Betfair BACK – PLACE – Dewana Babe >$4.20 for 2 units

 

Race 4- Australian Cup Heat 3

#4 Above All

I couldn’t fault his run here in the Group 1 Temlee last start where he ran a slick 29.65 but I feel like he will get squeezed early here. Black Frenzy and Black Illusion should show early dash on his outside and something will have to give on the first turn. He is likely to be over bet based on his run here last week and this creates a good lay opportunity.

#7 Eren Bale

Since scoring an excellent win here on February 6th he seems to have gone off the boil once he has risen in class and the pressure becomes higher. His most recent run at Geelong was poor where I felt he could have done more in the home straight. The winner of that race at Geelong, Black Frenzy is also in this race and may show too much early zip. There are too many quality dogs in this race and I am keen to lay.

Betting Strategy

Laying on Betfair LAY – WIN – Above All <$3.80 for 3 units

Laying on Betfair LAY – WIN – Eren Bale <$8.50 for 4 units

 

Race 5 – Stayers Cup Heat 2

#7 No Donuts 

He began brilliantly in the Group 1 Zoom Top last start and he dug deep late to hold on to win. I can see him doing the same early here and I am hoping he can avoid any early pressure and that last week’s run didn’t take too much out of him. I would only step in here if he gets to the right price but you know this chaser will be giving his all.

#5 Sweet Intention

This chaser hit a purple patch of form over December and January but I don’t believe she has been going well lately. I was very disappointed with her recent run at Warrnambool and I can’t see her getting warm against these rivals. The box draw does not help her either.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – WIN – No Donuts >$1.80 for 3 units

Laying on Betfair LAY – WIN – Sweet Intention <$10 for 2 units

 

Race 6 – Australian Cup Heat 4

#7 Dalgetty

Impossible to go past this star after he set the track alight in an astonishing 29.42 in the Group 1 Temlee here last week. It was the second fastest time ever recorded at the track. He has shown a liking for wide draws and there is no argument that he has a better draw and meets an easier field than last week. How can you jump off him! With Both Sides Now and Dawkins Bale being in great form I am hoping his price will sneak out to black figures.

#4 Diego Bale 

This consistent type scored a great win at Ballarat recently to show me that he is ready to show his best here. He has a great record over this trip (seven wins) which is three more than any other chaser in the field. He should be able to find a forward position and he will likely be forgotten about in the market. He is worth an each way flutter here.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – WIN – Dalgetty  >$2 for 6 units

Back on Betfair BACK – E/W – Diego Bale >$15/$3.5 for 1 unit

 

Race 7 – Australian Cup Heat 5

#4 Moreira 

This race looks impossible on paper, I could make a case for every greyhound in the race. Moreira was sensational in the Group 1 Rookie Rebel over 600m last start and even though he drops back in distance here he seems to have built up his confidence and is chasing his heart out. He may be able to get a sit on the leaders and rail underneath them and power away from these rivals.

#5 Tap Out Rose 

Normally a very consistent beginner and I don’t have any qualms about her box draw here, I believe being drawn in the middle boxes suits her racing style as she likes to lead and she can give a bold sight. Last start over this trip she drew unfavorably in the red box and was squeezed in the early stages, she showed a great sense for racing and pushed through hard on the first turn and held on for a gutsy win. I am happy to be on her again at huge odds here and hope for some trouble behind her.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – WIN – Moreira >$6 for 2 units

Back on Betfair BACK – WIN – Tap Out Rose >$15 for 1 units

 

Race 8 – Australian Cup Heat 6

#1 Ivy Bale 

In a race where it is hard to go past superstar chaser Dyna Double One there is plenty of value in betting on the place market here. Ivy Bale is a reliable beginner and she should be able to gain a good run through the first turn and be able to hold on for a place. Her last run over 595 metres at Sandown in handy time should top her off nicely to show speed and strength late against these rivals.

#3 Jesaulenko 

Only the one start at this track is big worry for me and he has not raced since the 4th February at Sandown Park. He also needs plenty of room early in his races and there looks to be plenty of pressure early from Ivy Bale, Dyna Double One, Berzerk and Bearville Azza. I just can’t see him kicking into gear here and I am very happy to let him go around without my money.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – PLACE – Ivy Bale > $3.30 for 3 units

Laying on Betfair LAY – WIN – Jesaulenko <$6 for 4 units

 

Race 9 – Stayers Cup Heat 3

#5 Seeking Justice 

I just loved his run in the Zoom Top over this distance last week. He kept coming and coming throughout the race and thundered home late to only lose by 3.75 lengths in a race where he was last early. He was finishing so quickly that he had overtaken the winner of the race No Donuts going into the catching pen. I am not thrilled with the box but I am hoping he can find the rails by the winning post the first time around and catch the leaders over the next lap.

#2 Aston Harvey 

This chaser has only had 8 starts and he is having his first metropolitan start in a heat of a Group 1 race. I feel this is too much too soon and the pressure will be too high for him. He meets seasoned stayers such as Seeking Justice, Come on Fantasy and Ring The Bell who will not give him any peace throughout. He is a dog to follow going forward, just not tonight.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – WIN – Seeking Justice >$3.6 for 4 units

Laying on Betfair LAY – WIN – Aston Harvey <$6.5 for 4 units

 

Race 10 – Australian Cup Heat 7

#4 Zambora Brockie 

I believe he should be better for last week’s run over this trip and this is obviously an easier field than last week’s Temlee. Aston Bolero should be able to give him a nice cart into the race. If he is close to the lead down the back straight I am hoping he will show what he is made of and prove too classy.

#2 Unlawful Entry 

This former Group 1 winner has lost all of his early speed of late. With early speed from Aston Bolero, Zambora Brockie and Sweet Barbados they should be crossing him early and he may get shuffled back. Despite his sensational record from inside draws he has shown a liking to go around dogs of late rather than underneath them and this could be a recipe for disaster from the inside alley.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – WIN – Zambora Brockie >$4 for 3 units

Laying on Betfair LAY – WIN – Unlawful Entry <$4.5 for 6 units

 

Race 11 – Australian Cup Heat 8

#3 Ernest Bale 

This strong type has been mixing with the best throughout most of his career. He caught the eye winning over an unsuitable 450m at Ballarat recently and has a great record over this trip winning 5 races. He stormed home in the Group 1 Silver Chief here last month to just miss by 1.5 lengths. I believe he should be able to find a spot on the rails and sit off the leaders and storm home along the paint late in the race.

#1 Timmy’s Entity 

On paper it might seem hard to go against a dog who has won his past six starts, some of which from tricky draws and now he has the coveted red box in this event. However, this is a drastic rise in class and his wins have been in Grades 5,6,7 and Restricted Win Class. I believe he will really feel the pressure here competing in the top grade and even if he leads early, I feel he will be pressured enough throughout and tire in the latter stages of the race.

Betting Strategy 

Back on Betfair BACK – WIN – Ernest Bale >$5.50 for 3 units

Laying on Betfair LAY – WIN – Timmy’s Entity <$3.50 for 6 units

 

Race 12 – Stayers Cup Heat 4

#8 Dublin Bull 

This chaser has been in great form of late winning his past two starts over 715m at Sandown Park and also maintains an unbeaten record over this trip where he is 2 from 2. In addition, he likes breathing room early in his races so Box 8 suits him perfectly. He has 2 wins and a 2nd from 4 starts from this draw. He should be able to sit 2 or 3 lengths off the leaders at absolute worst at the winning post the first time around and prove too strong over the concluding stages.

#3 Luna Jinx 

She never ever got warm in the Group 1 Zoom Top last week over this trip. She began slowly and although she received a slight check on the first turn, she seemed to spit the dummy and made no impression throughout the remainder of the race. Prior to this she had been raced sparingly and this is only her 4th start for 2016. I can see her improving here but not enough to win.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – WIN – Dublin Ball >$2.10 for 4 units

Laying on Betfair LAY – WIN – Luna Jinx <$8 for 3 units