The Form Hound: Winter Cup Final, Thursday 7th July 2016 – Albion Park

Posted: July 7, 2016 at 11:21 am

Race 8 Winter Cup Final 725m 

Track Record: Dyna Double One 29.51 (25/6/2015)

Past Winners

2015 – Fabulous Storm

2014 – Flash Reality

2013 – Glen Gallon

2012 – Glen Gallon

2011 – Iso Octane

Race Analysis

Tricky race. There is plenty of speed in the middle boxes and from wide trying to cut down to the rail. Something may have to give early.

 

Blazin Bomber is an ultra professional chaser and even though on paper his draw looks tricky, he has the ability to weave through a field and you know he will be ‘running through a brick wall’ on the first turn. I am happy to be on him here at juicy odds. Zambora Brockie is probably the most red hot greyhound in the country at present and if he explodes out it could be ‘times and margins’ early on.

However, with the stack of speed around him there could be a high amount of pressure on him. Outside Pass scored a win that had to be seen to be believed in her heat and she has proven that she can lead or run from behind, she is versatile and unpredictable and she may be forgotten in the market, I am happy to have something on her.

Thirty Talks is a genuine superstar but I don’t like the way he has been jumping lately, you cannot afford to make those mistakes in quality finals like this. He has amazing acceleration and I am certainly not prepared to lay him. Cyndie’s Magic is a star stayer who may find this field to slick but if there is any trouble upfront she could be coming home like a freight train.

Split Image has impeccable early speed and although I don’t think she has the strength to win she could make or break the race for others on the first turn. She may cart in the 8. Vegas Bound has been running over the longer distances and I think he will be swamped early and get shuffled back. Master Jackpot is another who can show great early pace and he could be vying for the early lead but I don’t think he can win. I would be more confident if he had an outside draw.

Field & Stats

1. Cyndie’s Magic: Best 29.94. Runner up in heat in time of 30.01 with first split of 5.89. Only missed a placing once in 11 starts from Box 1. In the money 25 of 34 starts over this trip.

2. Vegas Bound: Best 30.36 (winning). Ran second in heat in time of 30.23. First split of 5.80. Only two wins from 12 starts over this trip. Never won from this box (two starts).

3. Outside Pass: Best 29.68. Won heat in 30.20 coming from a long way back,  split of 5.74. Has won her past three starts over this trip. Eight wins from 15 here.

4. Zambora Brockie: Best 29.64, ran this time in heat, first split of 5.60. Has won eight of his past nine starts. Recent Horsham Cup winner. Two wins from four starts this draw.

5. Master Jackpot: Best 30.04, Runner up in heat in time of 30.23. First split of 5.60. One win and one placing from three starts this draw. Oldest chaser in field. Has a 5.52 PB first split.

6. Thirty Talks: Best 29.66, won his heat in 29.93, first split of 5.65. Six wins from eight starts over this trip. 14 from 18 wins overall.  Has had this draw past two of three starts here.

7. Split Image: Best 29.94, runner up in heat in 29.99, first split of 5.49 which was a PB.  Has never raced from this draw. Never missed a placing here in nine starts.

8. Blazin’ Bomber: Best 29.71, recorded this time in heat win. first split of 5.62. Only missed a placing once in his past 12 starts. Never won from this draw (only one start).

9. Abby’s Magic: First emergency. Best 30.03. Ran third in heat in time of 30.23, first split of 5.61. Has had 41 starts over this trip. Best form has come from Boxes 1-3.

10. Cheeky Chance: Second emergency. Best 30.00. Ran third in heat in time of 30.23, first split of 5.63. Has had 49 starts over this trip. Best form from Boxes 4 and 5.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Blazin’ Bomber (8) > $5.00 for 2 units

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Outside Pass (3) > $6.50 for 2 units

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