The Form Hound: Sale Cup Final

Posted: December 26, 2015

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GOLD 1242 SALE CUP FINAL – December 26, 2015

RACE 6 – 8:45 pm EDST. Group 1. 650m

 

Prizemoney: 1st $75,000 2nd $21,500 3rd $10,750

Track Record: 36.71 Mantra Lad 15/12/09.

 

Runner & Comment

  1. Come On Fantasy – Stormed home from last down the back in her heat win. Doubt she will be in the first half at the pen the first time. Should be charging late.
  2. Lithgow Panther – Classy middle distance runner that is a recent winner of the Group 3 John Dillon Memorial at Sandown. Will be giving them a start and powering home.
  3. Ring the Bell – He was unwanted in the betting and flew the lids in his fastest heat win. Should get to the fence first with the slower beginners inside him.
  4. Bourbski Flyer – Slow beginner that will be giving them a start and charging late. Don’t like the draw under NO DONUTS who should be cutting hard for the rails early. Will get home hard if close enough.
  5. No Donuts – Fast beginner that will go left at the start in an endeavor to get to the rails early. Only hope is if he gets across early, will have plenty of challengers late.
  6. Chrichton Bale – Winner of the third fastest heat last week. Jumped ok but found himself a long way back and powered home. He looks beautifully drawn and expect him to be 2nd or 3rd at the pen with a lap to go.
  7. Full On Bling – Looks perfectly boxed out here. Was well favored in his heat when he found the front down the back after getting wide and off the track early. Was run down late but I expect him to be stronger this week.
  8. Lady Toy – Genuine staying type that looks poorly boxed out wide. She will be last early, and there are some classy middle distance types she will be giving a start to.
  9. Bells Are Ringin – (1st Em) Looked to have every chance in her heat. Positioned up handy and just battled away. Would need a great draw and a lot of luck to win this. Will be big odds.
  10. Spring Trail – (2nd Em) He was well in the market on heat night when he looked to have every chance. Not to be underestimated from this kennel.

 

Race Summary

Enthralling year for the Sale Cup with a box draw that throws the race wide open. The early speed looks to come from the middle boxes here with COME ON FANTASY and LITHGOW PANTHER both expected to be crossed easily at the start by RING THE BELL and NO DONUTS. I expect that with the way NO DONUTS begins and wanting to get across to the rails, the main beneficiaries of the draw look to be CHRICHTON BALE and FULL ON BLING. They should both get a cart across from out wide early and whichever one of those gets to 2nd or 3rd early I expect to be hitting the front on the top turn. Can they hang on though is the big question. There will be plenty of charges running on late, with the two inside draws looking the strongest two in the race, COME ON FANTASY and LITHGOW PANTHER. Either of those will only need early luck and a clear passage to be stalking the leaders and finishing too strong. But at the likely short prices being thrown around, I couldn’t take under each-way odds either of those. The value looks out wide.

 

Betting Strategy

Laying on Betfair LAY WIN – COME ON FANTASY (1) < $5.00

Laying on Betfair LAY – PLACE – COME ON FANTASY (1) < $2.00

Laying on Betfair LAY – WIN – LITHGOW PANTHER (2) < $4.00

Back on Betfair BACK – WIN – CRICHTON BALE (6) > $10.00

Back on Betfair BACK – WIN – FULL ON BLING (7) > $12.00