The Form Hound: Bendigo Cup Final, Friday July 1 2016

Posted: June 30, 2016 at 11:52 am

R8 Bendigo Cup Final 425m 

Track Record: Fernando Bale 23.386 seconds (28/6/2015)

Past Winners

2015 – Fernando Bale

2014 – Paw Licking

2013 – Ronan Izmir

2012 – Peggy May

2011 – Enry Walt

Race Analysis

Strong early speed in the race with Aston Bolero, Zoltina’s Legacy, Pantera Nera and Ultimate Magic all showing lightning early pace. Something will have to give early!

Unlawful Entry was a great run in his heat where he was in plenty of traffic in the early stages but pushed through strongly and hit the line powerfully. Due to the fact there is so much early speed I am actually hoping he misses the kick slightly, allowing him a chance to balance up early and accelerate. There is a big chance of a ‘shuffle up’ and I am hoping he will circle the field.

Ultimate Magic is a superstar in the making and he looks well drawn out wide to avoid any early trouble. Proven Kodiak has been in strong form of late and is another who may benefit by missing the kick slightly allowing him to rail and finish strongly along the fence in the home straight.

Aston Bolero is a very reliable and quick beginner but has been scouting wide of late and I believe he may not get all his own way upfront and there will be a stack of pressure coming from the outside. He may end up being way too short.

Pantera Nera has a tricky draw here and he only just held on to win his heat, this is obviously much harder. Gotta Get Back used the wide draw to perfection in his heat but I have never liked him from inside draws in high pressure races, I expect him to get shuffled back. Zoltina’s Legacy led all the way in his heat but this looks beyond him. Mumma Josie will be the outsider of the field and although she is one of Victoria’s most improved chasers she would need a stack of luck to win here.

Field & Stats

1. Gotta Get Back: Best 23.76. Won heat in 23.84 with a first split of 6.60. Eight of 22 career wins from Boxes 1-2. Oldest chaser in field. Two from six over this trip.

2. Aston Bolero: Best 23.68. Recorded this time in heat win, first split of 6.50. Never worse than second in six starts from this draw. Has won four of past five starts. Three wins from four starts this circuit.

3. Zoltina’s Legacy: Best 23.68. Won heat in 23.94 with a first split of 6.55. Amazing six wins from six starts this trip. Two wins and a placing from three starts this draw.

4. Proven Kodiak: Best 23.76. Won heat in 23.77 with a first split of 6.53. Been in the money in his past eight starts. Only one win from five starts this draw but has never missed a placing.

5. Pantera Nera: Best 23.79. Recorded this time in heat win, first split of 6.48. Two wins from two starts this draw. Two from two this trip. Has not finished worse than second in his past nine.

6. Mumma Josie: Best 23.98. Recorded this time in heat win, first split of 6.53. Has won five of her past seven starts. One win from two starts this draw (heat win).

7. Unlawful Entry: Best 23.68. Recorded this time in heat win, first split of 6.63. Sandown Park track record holder. Two from two this draw. One win from three starts this circuit.

8. Ultimate Magic: Best 23.65. Led all the way in heat in 23.74. First split of 6.54. Three wins from four starts this draw. Two from two this trip. Has won three of past four.

9. Zipping Arnold: First Emergency. No best time. Second in heat in time of 23.70, first split a flying 6.46. Never won her in three attempts. Best performed Boxes are 4 & 5.

10. Pure Titanium: Second Emergency. Best 23.65. Ran second in heat in 23.79, first split of 6.55. Four of six career wins from Boxes 1-4. Never worse than second in three starts here.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Unlawful Entry > $3.70 for 2 units

Back on Betfair BACK (WIN) Ultimate Magic > $3.50 for 2 units

Laying on Betfair LAY (WIN) Aston Bolero <$4.10 for 2 units

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