Football Form Labs EPL Season 2016/17: Week 9

Posted: October 21, 2016

English Premier League Season 2016/17 – Week 9

Bournemouth v Tottenham

Saturday October 22, 10:30pm AEDT

Bournemouth made it three wins in five as they thumped Hull 6-1 at the Vitality Stadium to climb up to 11th. Spurs remain unbeaten but could only manage a point at West Brom and that was thanks to a late Dele Alli equaliser. As a result they swap places with their North London rivals and go down to 3rd, but they remain just one point behind City.

The win over Hull was Bournemouth’s third in a row at home as they’d previously beaten Everton and West Brom, though they were well beaten by Utd in their opener. Indeed, Eddie Howe’s men struggled against the top teams last term as they were W2-D1-L7 against top-half finishers, with six of those defeats by more than once goal, including a 5-1 thumping at the hands of Spurs themselves.

Spurs have beaten Boro and Stoke comfortably on the road so far but their record when travelling to sides between 8th and 16th last term was W4-D5-L0 as they managed just one clean sheet in these matches. As a result, six of these games saw more than two goals, while five had more than three. Since Bournemouth have kept just two clean sheets this term but have netted in 10 of their last 11 at home, we’re backing both teams to score, particularly with Alderweireld out for Spurs.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – Both Teams to Score Yes at 1.82

Burnley v Everton

Sunday October 23, 1:00am AEDT

Burnley’s defeat against Southampton was their third in four games and they were very much second best as Saints had a remarkable 34 shots and were even more comfortable than the eventual 3-1 scoreline suggested. Everton, meanwhile, picked up an excellent point at the Etihad and though they did in fact take the lead, City dominated the game and missed a couple of penalties and so Ronald Koeman will certainly have been happy with the result.

While they’ve lost all three of their road games whilst conceding nine gaols, Burnley are a different proposition at home as they’ve beaten Liverpool and Watford and it took until the 92nd minute for Arsenal to score a dubious winner against them in their last home match.

Everton have picked up seven points from their four road games and their record when travelling to bottom-six sides is W3-D3-L1 since the start of last season, which puts us off backing them somewhat at 1.7, despite the fact that they’ve looked a much better side this season. Instead, since all five of Burnley’s home games have seen fewer than three goals, while Everton have scored more than once in just two of their last 10 road games, we’re going to back Under 2.5 Goals in what should be another cagey affair at Turf Moor.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – Under 2.5 Goals at 1.84

Hull v Stoke

Sunday October 23, 1:00am AEDT

Mike Phelan’s first game in charge after being named full-time head coach didn’t quite go to plan as his side were thumped 6-1 at Bournemouth, making it four defeats on the bounce. Stoke, on the other hand, picked up their first win of the season as they beat fellow strugglers Sunderland 2-0 at home, meaning they’re now unbeaten in three.

Since beating Leicester on the opening day, Hull have had a tough run of home fixtures as they’ve played Man Utd, Arsenal and Chelsea. Arsenal were the only side to beat them comfortably but that was largely due to a first half red card for Jake Livermore as it took Utd until the 90th minute to find the net, whilst Chelsea were kept at bay for the first hour.

Stoke have picked up just two points from their four road games so far and have won only six of 23 away since the start last season. When travelling to bottom-six sides they’re W5-D10-L4 under Mark Hughes in games that have tended to be low scoring as 12 of these saw fewer than three goals, including five of seven since the start of last season. With Wilfried Bony yet to get off the mark and Hull netting just four times in their last six, we’re backing Under 2.5 Goals as Phelan is sure to have his side organised much better in a bid to avoid a repeat of the Bournemouth game.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – Under 2.5 Goals at 1.8

Leicester v Crystal Palace  

Sunday October 23, 1:00am AEDT

While the Foxes are flourishing in Europe having won all three of their Champions League games, their title defence hasn’t gotten off to the best of starts as they’ve won just two of their eight games so far to leave themselves down in 13th. Palace, meanwhile, have picked up just one point from their last two after three wins on the bounce and as a result have dropped down to 9th.

Leicester have lost and trailed at the break in all four of their road games, but they remain unbeaten at the King Power Stadium, where they’ve conceded just once. Indeed, they’re now W14-D8-L1 at home since the start of last season and have conceded just six goals in their last 15 in front of their own fans.

Though Palace managed those three wins on the bounce, they came against sides all currently in the bottom four and as a result question marks still remain over Pardew’s side. Those wins over Sunderland and Middlesbrough were the only ones they’ve managed in their last 15 on the road and with Ranieri’s men still in good form at home, we think they’re a big price at odds-against.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – Leicester Win at 2.1

Swansea v Watford

Sunday October 23, 1:00am AEDT

Bob Bradley was handed the unenviable task of travelling to the Emirates in his first game in charge, but after going 2-0 down his side acquitted themselves fairly well as they pulled it back to 3-2 and had some decent chances to pick up a point after Granit Xhaka’s red card, but ultimately fell short. Watford, meanwhile, continued their strong start to the season as they won 1-0 at Boro to move into the top half.

Swansea have gained just one point at home so far but their last three fixtures have been against Chelsea, Manchester City and Liverpool. Their record when hosting sides between 7th and 14th last term was W4-D2-L1 in games that tended to be very tight with six seeing fewer than two goals and the Swans managing five clean sheets.

Watford have picked up seven points from their four road games and their record when travelling to bottom-half sides is an impressive W7-D2-L3 since the start of last season. That makes this a tough game to call, suggesting Swansea are on the short side at 2.36 for a team that has lost six of their last seven. That price allows us to take some cover on the draw and so we’re backing Watford +0.25 on the Asian Handicap.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – Watford +0.25 Asian Handicap at 1.9

West Ham v Sunderland

Sunday October 23, 1:00am AEDT

West Ham picked up a much-needed win at Palace to move out of the relegation zone and ease some of the pressure on Slaven Bilic. David Moyes, conversely, is a man under severe strain after his Sunderland side slumped to their sixth defeat of the season at Stoke to leave themselves rooted to the foot of the table with just two points.

The move to the London Stadium hasn’t gone quite as smoothly as West Ham will have hoped as they’ve picked up just one point from their last three there and were well beaten by both Watford and Southampton. However, this Sunderland side are a much easier proposition and the Hammers won three of four unbeaten games against the bottom-four last term, with each of those victories without conceding.

Since they didn’t score more than twice in any of these four games, whist Sunderland haven’t conceded more than twice in any of their four road games this term, despite losing three, we’re backing West Ham to Win and Under 2.5 Goals. We expect them to make it back-to-back clean sheets with Cresswell now back in the side and Sunderland again without Januzaj, who was arguably their biggest threat going forward in the early stages of this season and in his absence Defoe could once again be isolated up front.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – West Ham to Win and Under 2.5 Goals at 4.5

Arsenal v Middlesbrough

Sunday October 23, 1:00am AEST

Arsenal made it six wins on the bounce at home to Swansea and though they were made to work hard to hold on to the three points after Granit Xhaka saw red on 70 minutes, it turned out to be an excellent weekend for the Gunners as Spurs and City both dropped points, while Liverpool and United drew on Monday night. What’s more, they also thumped Ludogorets 6-0 at the Emirates in midweek. Boro, meanwhile, slumped to their fourth defeat in five games as they were beaten 1-0 at home to West Brom, with Karanka’s position now under threat.

The Gunners have won 15 of their 23 home games since the start of last season and their record when hosting bottom-six sides since 2014/15 is W9-D3-L0. They kept nine clean sheets in these games and led at the break in half, while six of their victories were by more than one goal. Even more impressive is their home record against promoted sides which has seen them win all 12 of these games since 2012/13, with seven clean sheets and five wins by more than two goals.

Boro have lost just one of their four road games so far, but they’ve had some fairly lenient fixtures as they avoided defeat against Sunderland, West Brom and West Ham. In their other away game they were beaten 3-1 at Everton, conceding all those goals in the first half and we expect them to be similarly overwhelmed by the Gunners, who we’re backing to be ahead at half-time and full-time.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – Arsenal/Arsenal Half Time/Full Time at 1.81

Liverpool v West Brom

Sunday October 23, 3:30am AEST

After a frustrating bore draw with Manchester United that ended a run of four straight wins, Liverpool will hope to get back to winning ways against West Brom, though Jurgen Klopp will no doubt have been pleased that his side managed their first clean sheet of the season against Jose Mourinho’s cautious team. West Brom, meanwhile, are unbeaten in four but have drawn their last three and as a result have slipped down to 12th.

Liverpool had scored nine goals in their first two home games prior to the Utd game and with Adam Lallana and Wijnaldum set to return, the Reds could put on a show in front of their fans after they were left disappointed on Monday night. However, that could once again prove tough against West Brom, who are notoriously well organised under Tony Pulis.

Indeed, the Baggies have conceded more than twice in just one of their 23 road games since the start of last season. When travelling to top-six sides they’re W1-D2-L6 under Pulis as they trailed at the break in six of these games, but conceded more than twice in only one of these six games last term. With that in mind, we’re backing Liverpool to be ahead at half-time and full-time, as they were against both Leicester and Hull, with the 2-0 correct score worth a punt at 7.2.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – Liverpool/Liverpool HT/FT at 1.82

Manchester City v Southampton

Sunday October 23, 11:30am AEST

Having won their first 10 games in all competitions under Guardiola, the Citizens are now winless in four after they were beaten 4-0 at the Nou Camp, though they were unfortunate not to beat Everton in their last league games as they were dominant throughout. Southampton, meanwhile, are in impressive form despite the defeat against Inter in a game where they spurned a number of excellent chances, as they’re up to 8th in the league after three wins in four unbeaten games .

City have managed just one clean sheet so far this season and the defence will have to improve because they can’t rely on scoring at least twice in every game, as they found out against Everton when they came up against an inspired Martin Stekelenburg. Having said that, their record when hosting sides between 6th and 10th is an impressive W12-D1-L3 since 2013/14 and 10 of these wins were by more than one goal, while seven were by more than two.

Southampton have already travelled to Utd and Arsenal this season, losing 2-0 at Old Trafford and perhaps unfortunate not to pick up a point at the Emirates after the Gunners were awarded a stoppage time penalty. That means that Saints’ record when travelling to top-four teams is W2-D2-L6 since 2014/15 as they failed to score in half these games but lost only three by more than one goal. However, two of those came against City themselves, who also led at the break in both their wins and we’re backing a repeat as we expect Pep’s men to make their dominance pay, unlike against Everton.

Betting Strategy

Back on Betfair BACK – Man City/Man City HT/FT at 2.3

Back on Betfair BACK – Man City -1.5 Asian Handicap at 2.44

Chelsea v Manchester United

Monday October 24, 2:00am AEST

After disappointing defeats against Liverpool and Arsenal, Chelsea have responded with back-to-back wins without conceding against Hull and Leicester to move back up to 5th. Utd, conversely, have won just one of their last four and consequently are down in 7th, but they were impressive in the Europa League as they thumped Fenerbahce 4-0, with Pogba finding some form.

Having won just one of their final 10 home games last season, Chelsea have won three of four at the Bridge so far this term, though each of those victories were against sides in the bottom-seven heading into this round of fixtures. Indeed, Chelsea have played only three sides currently in the top half and they were well beaten by both Liverpool and Arsenal, while it took two late goals for them to come from behind against Watford.

Utd, on the other hand, have already travelled to Liverpool, where they put in a typical Mourinho ‘big game’ display to frustrate their hosts into a goalless draw. Since his return to the Premier League with Chelsea in 2013/14, the Portuguese has a W3-D8-L2 record when travelling to City, Arsenal, Spurs and Liverpool as nine of these games saw fewer than three goals, while five had fewer than two. With Conte surely weary of a repeat of the Liverpool and Arsenal debacles, there’s every chance this could be a cagey encounter and so we’re going to lay the Blues at 2.24, which looks far too short on what they’ve achieved this season, and also back Under 2.5 Goals.

Betting Strategy

Laying on Betfair LAY – Chelsea at 2.24

Back on Betfair BACK – Lay Chelsea at 2.24

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